![COLUMN | 2026 predictions and 2025 lessons: the three best words in the English language are, “You were right!” (but not always) [Offshore Accounts]](http://media.assettype.com/bairdmaritime%2F2026-01-05%2Fhxvwf4fd%2FUntitled.jpeg?w=480&auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=max)
The start of a new year sees every would-be seer and Poundland pundit make their forecasts for the 365 days ahead.
Last year, we warned that, “making predictions is a fool’s game, so pass me the dunce’s hat,” but, nonetheless, almost exactly a year ago, we did make some predictions for 2025…
Anyone who makes a forecast or prediction should be held to account. If you are going to declare that the Russian Army will take Kyiv in three days, or pontificate that Brexit will bring enormous economic benefits to the United Kingdom, or boast that President Trump’s talented team will kick-start an American shipbuilding renaissance (all of which were predicted by supposed specialists in their field), then you need to admit it when you are wrong, and learn from the mistake.
Therefore, any readers who want publicly to test their skills in the shipping or offshore markets can send me their predictions for the year ahead. I won’t publish your names (unless you want me to), but I am happy to discuss your predictions and see how you fare. You can email me directly on hieronymousbosch.baird@gmail.com or the Editor at editor@bairdmaritime.com.
I will publish my own predictions for 2026 next week.
In my case, I was right on seven out of my ten predictions for last year:
☑ I correctly forecast that both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would be booted out of office in 2025, ☑ along with now former-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. I did not expect Trudeau to end the year dating Katy Perry, nor that he would resign within a few days of the piece being published, however.
☑ I was correct that Navitas Petroleum’s Sealion oilfield development would receive final investment decision (FID) approval in the Falkland Islands – last month, the operator awarded Bluewater’s Aoka Mizu floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) the production facilities contract. First oil is now expected in 2029 in this harsh environment, remote location project in 450 metres of water in the South Atlantic, an oilfield that was first discovered in 2010, and which I once feared might be stranded.
☑ I was correct that TotalEnergies would finally lift force majeure on its Mozambique LNG project, four years after an Islamist militant attack on the nearby town of Palma killed hundreds of civilians and brought construction of the facilities to a halt. The security situation in Cabo Delgado province remains dire, with more killings by the Islamic State and 60,000 more people driven from their homes last year, but work has restarted, and ExxonMobil is also considering when to approve FID on its next-door LNG project in Mozambique. I am not going to call that one for 2026, however.
⮾ I was wrong when I said that TotalEnergies would also approve the Venus deepwater field development in Namibia in 2025 – the Venus FID seems likely in the next few months, and the French oil company is currently evaluating both FPSO bids and subsea infrastructure installation proposals from TechnipFMC or Subsea 7, but has not yet given the multi-billion dollar investment the green light.
So, my first prediction for 2026 is that Venus will finally receive FID this year. Let’s double down on this one now, even before we have checked out the remainder of the 2025 prognostications.
☑ I was right when I wrote that, “Likely in 2025, Galp will sell down half its 80 per cent share in Mopane field for a fat profit,” but ⮾ wrong when I forecast that the buyer would “probably” be Petrobras or ENI. In the end, in December, TotalEnergies bought 40 per cent of Galp’s stake in Mopane, swapping in a stake in Venus with the Portuguese operator and carrying some of its future costs.
☑ I was correct when I said in January 2025 that, “I would anticipate more newbuilding platform supply vessels (PSVs) will be ordered.”
Only just. After the wave of high profile orders by Hercules Offshore, by Seacor, by the joint team of Greek container owner Costamare and Norwegian shipowner Uglands Rederi at Paxocean, and by our favourite spitting Greek shipowner and football magnate Evangelos Marinakis of Capital Offshore in 2024, the PSV ordering pace slackened sharply in 2025. There was more investment in subsea construction vessels and commissioning service operation vessels last year than in PSVs.
Britoil also ordered six new anchor handling tugs and Saudi Arabian owner Rawabi continued its prolific fleet expansion across multiple categories of offshore vessels.
There are rumours that Bahri, the Saudi tanker owner, will enter the offshore support vessel market in 2026. Bahri says it currently operates a fleet of 103 vessels, which includes 47 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), 31 chemical/product tankers, seven multi-purpose vessels, and 13 dry bulk carriers.
Of course, we cannot confirm the hearsay, and Bahri did not place any orders for offshore vessels in 2025.
However, following on from Petrobras awarding US$2.8 billion of contracts for the construction of 12 new PSVs in Brazil to Edison Chouest’s Bram Offshore and to Starnav Serviços Marítimos at the end of 2024, CMM Offshore announced the signing of a contract with Petrobras for the domestic construction and operation of six multipurpose PSV-oil spill recovery vessels in March 2025.
There were other new orders, mainly on speculation by Chinese interests, including by the embattled Chinese player Sinopacific with a ten-vessel programme for its SPP 40 design, and a three firm plus six optional vessel order by Hainan Xing Shou Shipping at Yuhuan Haihang Shipbuilding and Repair.
⮾ I was wrong when I observed that, “Tidewater CEO Quintin Kneen spent US$2 million of his own money buying shares in the company at under US$50 per share last month, having previously cashed out US$70 million of stock when the shares traded above US$100 earlier in 2024. This suggests that there could be upside for Tidewater in 2025, as, so far, his timing has been impeccable.”
The Tidewater share price closed on December 31, 2025 at US$50.51, meaning that Mr Kneen was in the money on his purchases in the US$40s, (surprise! Nancy Pelosi should look and learn), but anyone who bought on January 3, 2025 was out of pocket, as the Tidewater stock had closed at US$56.46 a year ago, so you lost around ten per cent of your investment.
Tidewater was not alone. A weaker oil price, a horrible UK North Sea market, and concerns over the lack of new deepwater drilling projects starting in 2025 made the year “meh” for offshore investors. Seacor, Seadrill and Noble’s shares were also down around ten per cent on the year, Transocean’s shares were up slightly, but Valaris managed a stellar 15 per cent rise in 2025.
Note that we do not give investment advice in this column and you should do your own research, as shipping and offshore stocks are notoriously like Thai street food – they can be surprisingly cheap, spicy and delicious, but may cause serious diarrhoea if you are unlucky with your choice, or your timing.
The last and hardest to call prediction on the so-called "dark fleet" of tankers was less clear cut than a field approval, a leader losing office, or a stock being above a certain price – all of which, like pregnancy, are subject to binary outcomes. But I was on the money when I wrote the following:
“We would suggest the dark fleet registries and the flag states will face more pressure and scrutiny in 2025. I would not be surprised if individuals and private companies that certify and facilitate the dark fleet, or issue insurance to vessels like Eagle S, are not sanctioned to undermine the operation of these elderly and unsafe ships.”
☑ Bingo! That is exactly what happened.
In March, the Norwegian police arrested four people connected to Ro Marine and charged them with forgery and issuing illegal insurance papers.
Ro Marine was run by a Russian and was issuing some 250 fraudulent "blue cards" to certify that dark fleet ships and other tankers held oil spill insurance, when, in fact, there was no cover in place.
In April, Michelle Wiese Bockmann reported how the Guyana flag was involved in one of the world’s largest cases of regulatory maritime fraud, perpetuated by Suniel Kumar from Aryavart Corporation, who had been appointed to manage the registry on behalf of the government. The researcher has published several stories on shady Mr Kumar.
The Guyana Administration quickly severed ties with Kumar via his subsidiary Nautilus Register, cancelling the contract to manage the registry after a Guyana-flagged ship was found shipping illegal weapons and ammunition.
However, “Those persons continue to operate as if the arrangement has legitimacy and we’ve found that those operators of the dark fleet pounced upon the opportunity to utilise the flag in order to perpetrate their activities,” Thandi McAllister, the director of legal services for Guyana’s maritime administration, told Ms Wiese Bockmann.
The journalist reported that there were 79 ships using the fraudulent registry at that time, most of them dark fleet vessels subject to Western sanctions on Iran and Russia, including 13 VLCCs with an average age of 23 years. Any insurance claimed to be held by ships that are fraudulently flagged is invalid.
Last year, the Panama Ship Registry announced it had removed 107 Panama-flagged vessels listed under international sanctions from its fleet and that it had formally ceased accepting oil tankers, bulk carriers, and general cargo vessels that are more than 15 years old into its flag.
In 2024, we reported the shocking case of the Palau registry, associated with: a dark fleet tanker named Eliak, which suffered an explosion in Dalian, killing a Georgian seafarer; many port state detentions for safety violations; and a raft of allegations of sanctions breaches by its vessels.
Finally, at the end of last month, The Island Times reported that Palau had, at long last, terminated the operational management of its Palau Open Ship Registry by International Shipping Bureau Management and its designated implementing companies. The government concluded that (surprise!), the registry was no longer functioning adequately.
L. N. Reklai reported in the local press that the Palau Government had issued a notice of termination in September 2025, “citing oversight failures, reputational harm linked to Palau-flagged vessels, blacklisting, sanctions-related bank account freezes, and chronic late payments. That notice was briefly withdrawn in November to allow for an audit. Following the review, Palau renewed the termination on December 16, 2025, determining that the registry’s operations no longer met required standards.”
In mid-2024, we highlighted how a UAE-based company called Intershipping Services was responsible for managing the “open ship registries” for Gabon, a flag packed with dark fleet tankers at the time, including many former Sovcomflot vessels. We noted that the aged, Gabonese-flagged Aframax tanker Pablo had exploded spectacularly off the coast of Malaysia in 2023, killing three crewmembers.
Finally, last year, Intershipping was sanctioned, listed in the EU Council Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1478 of July 18, 2025.
Through the founder’s family connections and its Mumbai office, registered as Intershipping Services Hub, the company also operated the Comoros international ship registry, which also flagged vessels transporting sanctioned Russian crude or petroleum products with low standards.
As we expected, the move against Intershipping was part of the ongoing war of attrition between the dark fleet operators and the western opponents of Iran and Russia. The year 2025 saw an unending game of flags kicking out suspect vessels and the dark fleet owners flipping ships through shell companies into new managers and new registries, including Malawi and Gambia.
The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to face charges in New York may further tip the market dynamics if Venezuelan oil is removed from US sanctions. But that is a big if.
There are still too many elderly and unsafe vessels trading sanctioned crude, often without formal flags and insurance. The IMO should mandate serious reform of lesser registries like Sao Tome and Principe and the Cook Islands, where private companies sell registration for private profit in opaque deals with governments where benefits to the nation whose flag is flown appear minimal.
We reiterate that all flag registries should be compelled to publish their accounts, their beneficial owners, and the amount they return to the treasuries of the countries they allegedly represent. Unfortunately, I don’t predict that happening in 2026.
However, the shenanigans surrounding US Coast Guard efforts to detain the falsely flagged and sanctioned tanker Bella 1 as part of its blockade of Venezuela last month show that the dark fleet may finally be returning to its roots.
On New Year’s Eve, Russian authorities informed the US that the ship had been flagged to Russia and renamed Marinera (perhaps inspired by President Putin’s love of knock-off pasta?) and the crew painted the Russian flag across the side of the hull. Moscow requested that Washington desist from its pursuit.
Meanwhile, Ukraine adopted military sanctions of its own, attacking two flagless, former Gambian-registered tankers in ballast in the Black Sea, hitting the Russian oil export terminal in Novorossiysk in November with sea drones and, last month, the Omani-flagged tanker Qendil, with an aerial drone in the Mediterranean.
And of course, ten Ukrainian air drones struck the Ust-Luga and oil and gas export terminal, setting fire to the Novatek gas processing complex there on the morning of August 24. That came on top of the explosions that were reported on board the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged oil tanker Koala in February at Ust-Luga, which led to the vessel being evacuated after engine room damage.
☑ I had written in my predictions that, “The year 2025 will be the year that Europe and the wider world becomes far less naïve about the dangers posed by the dark fleet, and it will also be the year that Russia’s oil exporting ports in the Baltic become a battleground.”
I think 2026 will be the same. It is clear that, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues its bloody path, and as Iranians once again take to the streets to protest against their autocratic government, the dark fleet is at the frontline of both conflicts. Its tankers provide the oil revenues that sustain the governments in Moscow and Tehran.
No dark fleet, no drones hitting apartment blocks and schools in Kharkiv.
I shall close this piece with the same observation that I opened with last year. "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window," management guru Peter Drucker once wrote, so buckle up!
Next week, I will attempt to predict the bumpy and winding track along which we shall race the offshore industry jalopy in 2026.
What divination of the dim and dark future can I provide for the year ahead? Stay tuned.
Background reading
I was helped in my reading of 2025 by the fact that in 2024, John Michael Ormerod, a London-based and Eton-educated ship financier and accountant, who worked with Lukoil to finance and purchase US$730 million of tankers for the dark fleet through shell companies, was himself placed under sanctions by the British government (excellent Financial Times coverage here).
Our earlier three pieces on the dark fleet in 2024 provide a good overview of the challenges facing the shipping industry and the IMO, in a world where private companies run open registries like the Cook Islands, Gabon and Sao Tome. These flags are often referred to as “flags of convenience” and when we wrote the piece, they provided registry to the owners of ageing and often unsafe vessels trading sanctioned oil cargoes, which frequently switched flags and changed class to stay ahead of regulators.
Part I: flag state responsibility should be flag state liability
Part II: who profits from these sanctions-busting ships?
Part III: Palau, the Cook Islands and the Swedbank precedent
In October 2024, we introduced readers to Marine Mutual Insurance Association of New Zealand and other locales, a key insurer to the dark fleet, offering “facultive” cover. In late 2025, Reuters dug further and produced a coruscating investigation into the company and its 75-year=old British owner, Paul Rankin.
We can expect further developments on this front in 2026.
