FEATURE | Oil prices slide to one-week low on easing geopolitical tensions

Trump secures US access to Greenland, eases tensions
Kharg Island, Iran
Kharg Island, IranIRNA
Published on

Oil prices slid about two per cent to a one-week low on Thursday after US President Donald Trump softened threats towards Greenland and Iran, and on some positive movement that could lead to a solution to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Brent futures fell $1.44, or 2.2 per cent, to $63.80 a barrel at 12:47 EDT (17:47 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.45, or 2.4 per cent, to $59.17 a barrel.

That put Brent on track for its lowest close since January 15 and WTI on track for its lowest close since January 9.

Trump said he has secured total and permanent US access to Greenland in a deal with NATO, whose head said allies would have to step up their commitment to Arctic security to ward off threats from Russia and China.

European Union leaders, meanwhile, will rethink ties with the US at an emergency summit on Thursday after Trump's threat of tariffs and even military action to acquire Greenland badly shook confidence in the transatlantic relationship, diplomats said.

"There is a deflation of risk premium related to the Greenland debacle and Iran supply risk has also been reduced," said Ole Hansen, chief commodity analyst at Saxo Bank. Trump also said he hoped there would be no further US military action in Iran, but added the US would act if Iran resumes its nuclear programme.

Iran, operating under sanctions, is the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

With less tension around Greenland and Iran, oil prices should hold at around $60 a barrel, according to Tony Sycamore, an analyst with online broker IG.

Grinch, a suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker apprehended by French authorities, January 22, 2026
Grinch, a suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker apprehended by French authorities, January 22, 2026French Chief of the Defence Staff

Russia and Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine said on Thursday after talks with Trump in Davos that the terms of security guarantees for Ukraine had been finalised, but that the vital issue of territory in its war with Russia remains unsolved.

US and Ukrainian officials have spent weeks in shuttle diplomacy. Trump has pressured Ukraine to secure peace after nearly four years of war, despite few signs Russia wants to stop fighting.

A deal to bring peace to Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia, the world's third-biggest crude producer, could reduce oil prices by making more fuel available on global markets. The French Navy intercepted a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean suspected of being part of a shadow fleet that enables Russia to export oil despite sanctions.

Russian oil output fell 0.8 per cent to 10.28 million barrels per day last year, around a tenth of global production, according to data published on Thursday. In Venezuela, another sanctioned member of OPEC, trading houses Vitol and Trafigura were in the process of exporting fuel oil under a US-backed deal following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela oil and gas
Venezuela oil and gasPDVSA

A sweeping proposed reform of Venezuela's hydrocarbons law would allow foreign and local companies to operate oilfields on their own through a new contract model, commercialise output and receive sale proceeds even if acting as minority partners of state company PDVSA, drafts seen by Reuters on Thursday showed.

Boosting oil flows from Venezuela could reduce oil prices. Another factor weighing on oil prices was a slight worsening in forecasts for European corporate health.

European firms are expected to report a 4.2 per cent drop in 2025 fourth-quarter earnings, on average, according to data, slightly worse than ‌the 4.1 per cent decrease analysts expected a week ago.

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, said global oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated as demand growth remains strong and global oil stocks are depleted.

US oil inventories

Oil futures extended losses on a bigger-than-expected crude storage build.

The US Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 3.6 million barrels of crude to storage during the week ended January 16.

That was bigger than the 1.1-million-barrel increase analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and also topped the three-million-barrel build that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group reported on Wednesday.

EIA and API released their storage reports a day later than usual due to the US Martin Luther King Jr holiday on Monday.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York and Anna Hirtenstein in London. Additional reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Siyi Liu in Singapore. Editing by Joe Bavier, Will Dunham and Mark Potter

Related Stories

No stories found.
logo
Baird Maritime / Work Boat World
www.bairdmaritime.com