Everyone loves the thrill of a rollercoaster ride, with high-speed lurches, plunges and loop-the-loops, even if those with weak stomachs and vertigo find them nausea-inducing. Last week, there was no greater rollercoaster ride than the Oslo-listed shell company 2020 Bulkers, which demonstrated that Norwegian casino capitalism lives on.
As the name implies, 2020 Bulkers was originally a bulk carrier owner. The company entered into newbuilding orders at New Times Shipbuilding in China in September 2017 and subsequently took delivery of eight Newcastlemax bulk vessels of 209,000 DWT each between August 2019 and June 2020. 2020 Bulkers listed on the Oslo Axess secondary market in 2019 and then moved across to the main board in (surprise) late 2020 (prospectus here). In the bulk business, it has been a stunning success.
The newbuild bulkers had an average all-in delivered cost of US$47.6 million per vessel. The company was profitable every quarter since the first Newcastlemax was delivered in August 2019, through to the sale of the last ship in April of this year. The company’s newbuilding program was financed by US$142 million in equity raised between 2017 and 2019, in addition to the required debt financing.
The returns were stunning. 2020 Bulkers paid out US$570 million to its shareholders, equal to an annualised return of ~28 per cent, and the company paid cash distributions or dividends every month from August 2020 to April 2026. It started to sell its fleet in February 2024 when the company sold two 2019-built vessels together for US$127.5 million and the sales continued into 2025. The last ship, Bulk Sandefjord, was delivered to its new owners in April 2026, at which point the company repurchased a total of 2,791,163 shares for NOK129.5 per share and subsequently paid out NOK129.5 per share in a special dividend. By August, just US$5 million was retained in the Oslo-listed company to preserve the company as a platform for future opportunities, after all the debts on the ships had been completely paid down.
So, 2020 Bulkers went into this Nordic summer with no assets, but a stellar shareholder’s register of Norwegian big hitters, including Magnus Halvorsen who holds around nine per cent of the company’s shares, MH Capital (in which Mr Halvorsen owns half) holding just under seven per cent, Klaveness Marine Holding on 2.33 per cent of the shares, and Fredrik Halvorsen, 1.6 per cent, according to MarketScreener’s shareholder breakdown.
Adding assets to a listed shell company is a lot easier, cheaper, and quicker than trying to list a new company. Shareholders in Golden Energy Offshore might want to take note now that that listed company is reduced to just four owned supply vessels and one managed subsea unit.
Its success in bulkers set a high bar for future ventures for 2020 Bulkers. Rather like Drew Barrymore after her breakout role in Steven Spielberg's E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial when she was just seven years old, would 2020 Bulkers be able to make a comeback without being embroiled in a turbulent personal life, struggling with substance abuse and entering rehab twice before the age of 15? This is what Ms Barrymore did before she came storming back this century with hits like Never Been Kissed and 50 First Dates, films close to the heart of many in the North Sea offshore sector.
Or would it be a one-hit wonder like Home Alone star Macaulay Culkin, who vanished into obscurity after his initial fame and was last seen touting insurance in television adverts in the UK with the slogan “Remember me”??
At lunchtime on Wednesday, September 16, you could buy the 2020 Bulkers shares at NOK4.1, and they had been flat for months since the payout of the special dividend. The company then announced a major new development.
It was entering the allegedly sizzling hot anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) business and was buying up to 15 large AHTS vessels with around 200 tons of bollard pull each! Insanity broke out!
This news cranked the stock exchange rollercoaster into action, as you can see from the week’s share price chart from Yahoo:
Within hours, the stock had risen 87 per cent to close the day at NOK7.7. The next day, September 17, it surged another 50 per cent. Day traders could have doubled and nearly tripled their money. On Friday, though, it plunged back down more than 36 per cent to close at NOK7.45, a wild ride, indeed.
The company announced it would be ditching its 2020 Bulkers name and would instead henceforth be called AHTS AS after it completed the purchase of “up to 15” anchor handlers and an extraordinary shareholder meeting approves it. The vessels will be held under a Bermudan company.
Readers who have been paying attention will note that in July, private equity fund Hayfin Capital Management sold eleven 200-ton bollard pull AHTS built in 2009 and 2010, ten of which were built to the Moss 424 design. We observed that GH Voyager and GH Freedom had already transferred to the new owners, and the remaining nine vessels would follow in the coming weeks as charter and operational schedules allowed.
We noted in 2024, that Hayfin had turned down an earlier offer for the fleet and, “decided to hold course in what it perceived to be a rising market for 200-tonners.” It is believed by parties close to the deal that Hayfin sold the eleven AHTS this year at a level of US$23 million per vessel in July to Mr Harald Moræus-Hanssen’s Uthalden and partners.
See our piece covering the sale of the Hayfin AHTS fleet and the dizzying asset sales amongst Norwegian investors and shipowners here. In that article we also noted that Mr Moræus-Hanssen and Uthalden had acquired the DOF-managed AHTS Skandi Emerald (with 201 tons bollard pull, built in 2011) and the Aurora-managed AHTS Aurora Challenger (with 190 tons bollard pull, built in 2009, former Siem Challenger).
These 13 vessels form the core of the AHTS AS fleet. The company selling them to AHTS AS is owned by MH Capital (31.7 per cent), Songa Capital (31.7 per cent), Uthalden AS (31.7 per cent) and Drew Holding (4.7 per cent), some of the biggest names in Norwegian shipping, as per the company announcement.
Borr Drilling founder, and former right-hand man to John Fredriksen, Tor Olav Trøim owns Drew. The other large AHTS vessels on which the company has signed a letter of intent are also owned by MH Capital, Songa Capital, Uthalden, and other minority shareholders. These are Norwegian celebrity investors with a loyal following amongst retail investors.
The final two vessels are Skandi Peregrino (sister to Skandi Emerald as above, built in 2010 at Vard in Vietnam) and the AHTS Launcher, (originally Maersk Launcher, built in 2010 at Volkswerft Germany with 810 square metres of clear deck space and 249 tons bollard pull). Launcher was recently sold to the Norwegians by the former Maersk Supply Service in Brazil, which is now known as Navvik following its spin-off from its former Danish parent earlier this year.
All but one of the 15 vessels were built in 2009 and 2010 and the youngest, Skandi Emerald, was built in 2011. This a fleet with an average age of more than 16 years, worse than Tidewater’s. In 2029 and 2030, AHTS AS will likely have US$50 million or more of drydocking expenses and many months of off-hire time for the fourth special surveys on the vessels, which are all due around the same time.
2020 Bulkers said the age of the AHTS doesn’t matter because nobody is building new large anchor handlers, the orderbook is zero, and only one vessel between 190 and 260 tons bollard pull has been delivered since 2018. However, as we have noted, there is interest in medium-sized anchor handlers, with Rawabi at the forefront of new orders, as we covered with the delivery of one of the Saudi company’s ten 120-tonners here.
AHTS AS’ business case is based on a working life of the fleet of 30 years, which is strange, because there are literally no 30-year-old AHTS or platform supply vessels (PSVs) on-hire to any major oil companies anywhere in the world now. Ships in offshore have rarely traded to 30 years, except in a few bottom-feeding markets with low rates and low standards, like Mexico.
The claim that the North Sea AHTS market has consolidated and this market consolidation has now doubled its day rates to over US$100,000 per day in 2025 is also true, but is a red herring. The 2020 Bulkers/AHTS AS fleet, with the exception of 249-ton Launcher, is just too small for the North Sea market. DOF, Solstad and Sea1, the dominant North Sea AHTS players, will not be losing any sleep over the emergence of this venture.
Because it bases the working life of the ships on 30 years, the company said that AHTS AS is priced at a ~40 per cent discount to newbuild parity – i.e., the depreciated value of the ships, considering it would cost US$90 million to build a new 200-tonner in China today. They have drawn a straight line from US$90 million upon delivery to nil value in year thirty, and say that their ships are worth 40 per cent less than the equivalent newbuilding when 16 years old, implying that the deal to buy the 15 ships is an absolute bargain.
However, if you draw the line to a more realistic 25 years, you will find that 17-year-old ships ordered for US$90 million (such as the 2009-built vessels are today) would be worth US$28.8 million, as the annual depreciation is US$3.6 million.
On a 25-year vessel life, the deal is exactly as you would expect…
2020 Bulkers said it is acquiring the 15 vessels for US$406 million on cash-free, debt-free basis and requires total financing of US$445 million for securing the acquisition, refinancing, operating cash and working capital. That means each vessel is valued by the company at US$27 million (US$405 divided by 15 ships). This is six per cent discount to the nominal “new build parity”.
And wait. Didn’t we believe that the ships were sold by Hayfin for US$23 million each, so the promoters and sellers are likely pocketing a cool US$60 million in profit for their flip, being US$4 million for each of the 15 ships?US$60 million for two months of work is a pretty sweet deal, we can agree. This is a classic sale from private pockets to a public company with the private sellers taking a nice profit on the sale.
We note that Uthalden has a number of other aged offshore assets that might find a lovely home in AHTS AS in future when the latter company is capitalised and operational under its new business plan. Those former Fletcher Shipping PSVs that Moræus-Hanssen and Uthalden acquired this summer aren’t going to realise any capital gains without a “friendly” third party buyer to take them.
We did indeed say that, and US$5 million doesn’t go far to acquire US$405 million of vessels, plus another US$40 million of working capital, so the company needs to raise debt financing of US$120 million to refinance the vessels, and that US$40 million in working capital funds, which it said will be undrawn upon closing, with credit approval at an advanced stage.
What’s that, Drew? Charlie’s Angels Equity Full Throttle? Ah yes, there will be a new equity injection of US$325 million of new shares being issued in 2020 Bulkers. The sellers of the 15 ships will receive US$200 million as equity in kind to pay for ships and excited Norwegian retail investors will be able to participate in a US$125 million new equity issue that the company said, “will fully fund the acquisition, working capital and general corporate purposes, resulting in a solid capital structure with strong potential for distributions to shareholders.”
Following the equity issuances, Mr Moræus-Hanssen through Uthalden will own around ~24 per cent of the company, MH Capital around 12 per cent, and Arne Blystad’s Songa Capital about 11 per cent. These three companies will be subject to a six-month lock-up period in which they cannot sell their shares. No rushing to the door too soon after the deal.
The business case is remarkably optimistic and forecasts utilisation across the 15 vessels at an eye-popping 95 per cent at day rates of US$33,250 and OPEX of US$12,500. Those knowledgeable about the market for 200-ton bollard pull anchor handlers believe that the vessels in the Hayfin fleet never achieved such high utilisation and several of the other ships being purchased have similarly patchy records.
If we look at Tidewater, the world’s largest and arguably most successful operator of AHTS and supply vessels, 80 per cent utilisation across its fleet of over 200 vessels seems the norm in a good year.
Ninety-five per cent utilisation is pie in the sky in my unsolicited opinion, and if you are looking at investing in 2020 Bulkers, you might want the company sponsors to produce the average day rates and utilisation for the 11 former Hayfin vessels back from the market recovery in 2022.
Did the Hayfin fleet ever hit 95 per cent annual utilisation in any of the past six years? The twisted face of the masked slasher from Ms Barrymore’s 1996 film Scream comes to mind as the likely expression on Magnus Halvorsen’s visage if you were to ask such a question.
Then there is the commercial management. 2020 Bulkers is hiring Tom Babinski from Aurora Offshore, the current managers of the Aurora Challenger, as its new CEO, but the company will retain the commercial and technical management of the ships with three separate third parties. Eleven vessels will be under UOS management (the former Hayfin ships which UOS has managed since the days of the foundation of the company by Dr Nils Hartmann), three will be managed by DOF, and Aurora Challenger by Aurora.
There is a word for such arrangements: “confusing”.
One would assume that clients might be concerned about the risk of pricing information being shared by the owners across the three different commercial managers in arrangement that might look like collusion unusual, when different vessels from 2020 Bulkers are being offered for the same requirements by three separate managers many of whom also operate other third-party offshore vessels.
Implausibly, the deal anticipates shore and general administration costs of US$11 million a year, which is nice for Mr Babinski and the senior management, but strange given that all the technical and commercial management is being outsourced, and would usually be included in the US$12,500 of operating expenses per vessel per day.
Even more bizarre is the claim that dayrates, "are back at 2014 levels, implying 74 per cent upside to asset values,” saying that because the five-year-old vessels were worth US$47 million back in 2014, when day rates were at similar levels to today of over US$30,000, then the valuation of US$27 million today suggests that the valuation of each ship should in fact be much higher.
In my opinion, this situation does not offer 74 per cent potential upside on asset values. It instead suggests that the promoters are overly optimistic about the capital appreciation potential of old ships.
Several readers have commented to me that the frenzy reminded them of the initial public offering of Deep Sea Supply in 2006, which had a similar business plan of buying six large AHTS in a series from Tidewater for US$202 million, giving the sellers a one-off profit of US$80 million, and attempting to corner the North Sea AHTS market. Deep Sea Supply was a Cypriot company floated under the sponsorship of Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen.
Maybe. Deep Sea Supply had a younger fleet and, initially, a much more focused North Sea strategy. AHTS AS’s fleet is scattered across the globe and appears to be working in ten different markets from Australia to Southeast Asia to West Africa to Brazil, the Caribbean, northern Europe and the Mediterranean.
To paraphrase the title of another of Ms Barrymore’s films, I am just not that into AHTS AS as a business. This is more like pop goes a speculative stock in Oslo than Pop goes my heart, the opening song to Drew Barrymore and Hugh Grant film Music and Lyrics.
“I said, I wasn't gonna lose my head, but then Pop! Goes my heart (goes my heart).”
A familiar problem for retail investors in the Oslo stock exchange as shipping markets reach fever pitch.