Russia’s revenues from crude oil and refined products fell again in October due to lower export volumes and weaker prices, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, adding that Russian oil exports have been holding up so far.
Russia’s vital energy industry is under strain from a pickup in Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and pipelines, as well as Western sanctions over Ukraine.
Washington has piled pressure on Moscow by introducing sanctions against Russia’s largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, last month, setting November 21 as the deadline for winding down transactions with the companies.
The Paris-based IEA said Russia’s revenues from crude and fuel export sales fell to $13.1 billion in October, down $2.3 billion from the same month a year ago.
Russian crude and oil product exports fell by 150,000 barrels per day to 7.4 million bpd in October, reversing the increase seen in September, it said.
According to preliminary tanker tracking data and IEA analysis, three new market participants exported around one million bpd of Russian crude and products in October.
MorExport, RusExport and NNK have been operating in the market only since May 2025, the agency said.
"With the country demonstrating its ability to rapidly form new oil shipping companies and move more volumes via its sanctioned fleet, the path forward for Russian crude and product exports will be determined by enforcement and sourcing decisions from the main buyers," it said.
"Recent Ukrainian attacks on refining and oil production infrastructure contributed to the 110,000 barrels per day drop in crude exports, to just above five million bpd," the IEA said in a monthly report.
It said oil product exports also fell for the second consecutive month, by 40,000, to 2.3 million bpd, reaching their lowest level since 2017 and exacerbating tight international product markets.
The agency said Russian oil production excluding gas condensate was unchanged in October from September, at 9.28 million bpd, some 20,000 bpd lower than its target, outlined by the OPEC+ group of leading global oil producers.
That compares with the 9.328 million bpd assessed by the producer group OPEC.
"While Russian crude exports have largely held up ahead of the 21 November deadline, recent data show that some of that oil has begun to pile up on water as buyers shun cargoes amid compliance issues and other uncertainties," the IEA said.
According to the agency, Russia’s sustainable oil production capacity - the levels which can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period - stands at 9.4 million bpd, meaning it does not have much leverage in increasing its output.
Kazakhstan crude supply dropped sharply by 240,000 bpd to 1.7 million bpd in October, largely due to maintenance at the Tengiz field, the IEA said.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Conor Humphries and Louise Heavens)
