Rising defence spending, UK submarine orders boost BAE Systems outlook

BAE forecasts FY profit up 10 to 12 per cent, from nine to 11 per cent previously
The Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine HMS Astute as it nears completion at BAE Systems' Barrow-in-Furness facilities
The Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine HMS Astute as it nears completion at BAE Systems' Barrow-in-Furness facilitiesUK Ministry of Defence/CPOA Colin Burden
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BAE Systems raised its 2026 outlook on Thursday, continuing to benefit from strong demand as its biggest customer, the United States, ramps up munitions output and Britain pushes ahead with submarine and fighter jet programmes.

"In this heightened threat environment, our products and services remain in high demand," said BAE CEO Charles Woodburn.

BAE, which provides the United States with combat vehicles, electronic warfare systems and space capabilities, has seen its order book almost double since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Many western countries have pledged to lift their military budgets, while the Iran war means US and Middle East customers are also looking at new orders.

Structural tailwinds

BAE's shares, which have rocketed 260 per cent over the last five years and 18 per cent in the year to date, were up one per cent in early deals after it said it expected underlying operating profit to rise by 10 per cent to 12 per cent this year, up from its previous nine per cent to 11 per cent forecast.

"BAE Systems has once again demonstrated why it remains one of the standout names in the European defence sector," said Quilter Cheviot analyst Matt Dorset.

"The upgraded guidance reflects both the strength of execution and the structural tailwinds supporting the sector."

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Woodburn was at BAE's shipyard in Barrow, north-west England, where he will be joined by Britain's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham and new defence minister Wes Streeting. They will hand BAE the latest phase of a submarine contract worth £5.9 billion ($7.87 billion).

"The fact that he's here...I think says a lot about their commitment for defence," Woodburn told reporters when asked about the direction of Britain's defence spending.

He said that the Typhoon fighter jet, one of BAE's key platforms which it sells to customers in the Middle East, was performing "exceptionally well" in the Iran war, with its capabilities recently boosted by an anti-drone weapon system.

"The situation in the Middle East is definitely putting defence even further up government spending priorities in the region," Woodburn said when asked whether Saudi Arabia and other countries would order more Typhoons.

For the first six months of the year, BAE posted operating profit of £1.70 billion, beating an analyst consensus of £1.66 billion and up 11 per cent on the year earlier.

(Reporting by Sarah Young; Editing by Kate Holton, Paul Sandle and Alexander Smith)

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