Russia’s oil exports from western ports are expected to decrease slightly in November amid higher refinery runs, yet remain close to the record highs recorded over recent months, according to shipping and trading sources and estimates from Reuters.
Exports of Urals, Siberian Light, and KEBCO crude grades through the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk are projected at about 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for November. This is only marginally lower than October’s figure of around 2.4 million bpd, which included some volumes carried over from September.
Industry sources note that in September and October, Russia’s western ports operated near full capacity. Market participants had previously anticipated a more significant drop in exports for November, citing increased domestic refinery processing and reduced transportation capacity due to storms and external impacts on export terminals.
However, a recent attack on the port infrastructure in Tuapse led to the shutdown of Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery and may prompt the company to boost crude exports, traders say. Additionally, the recent drone attack on Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery is expected to free up further crude for export.
"The initial nomination for November was lower than October, but then everything changed. Novorossiisk will be large, and the Baltic will not be small either. Everything is in flux now," a source told Reuters, noting that seasonal storms could still impact export capabilities.
Data from several sources, including LSEG terminals, indicate that transshipment of Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light grades in Novorossiisk reached 0.85 million bpd in October, the highest level in at least the past decade.
Despite new US and EU sanctions introduced last week targeting Moscow and major oil producers Lukoil and Rosneft, volumes of Russian oil exports from western ports have not yet been affected, according to LSEG data and traders.
(Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Louise Heavens)