Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday but are set to fall more than 15 per cent for 2025. Supply outpaced demand in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs, and OPEC+ output, alongside sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
Brent crude futures are down nearly 18 per cent, the most substantial annual percentage decline since 2020. They are on track for a third straight year of losses, their longest-ever losing streak.
The March contract, which expires on Wednesday, fell five cents to $61.28 a barrel at 07:37 GMT.
BNP Paribas commodities analyst Jason Ying expects Brent to dip to $55 a barrel in the first quarter before recovering to $60 a barrel for the rest of 2026.
He expects supply growth to normalise while demand stays flat. "The reason why we're more bearish than the market in the near term is that we think that US shale producers were able to hedge at high levels," he said.
"So the supply from shale producers will be more consistent and insensitive to price movements." US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.92, down three cents, and was headed for a 19 per cent annual decline.
The 2025 average prices for both benchmarks are the lowest since 2020, LSEG data showed. US crude and fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
The US Energy Information Administration will release its data later on Wednesday.
Oil markets had a strong start to 2025 when former President Joe Biden ended his term by imposing tougher sanctions on Russia. This disrupted supplies to top buyers China and India.
The war in Ukraine intensified when Ukrainian drones damaged Russian energy infrastructure and disrupted Kazakhstan's oil exports. The 12-day Iran-Israel conflict in June also threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint.
Adding to geopolitical tensions, top OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a conflict over Yemen. US President Donald Trump has ordered a blockade on Venezuelan oil exports and threatened another strike on Iran.
Prices cooled after OPEC+ accelerated its output increases this year. Concerns about the impact of US tariffs also weighed on global economic and fuel demand growth.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026. This follows the release of some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April.
The next OPEC+ meeting is on January 4. Most analysts expect supply to exceed demand next year, with estimates ranging from the International Energy Agency's 3.84 million barrels per day to Goldman Sachs' two million bpd.
"If the price really has a substantial fall, I would imagine you will see some cuts (from OPEC+)," said Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist. "But it probably does need to fall quite a bit further from here on - maybe in the low $50s."
"If today's price simply prevails, after the pause in Q1, they’ll probably continue to unwind these cuts." John Driscoll, managing director of consultancy JTD Energy, expects geopolitical risks to support oil prices despite oversupply fundamentals.
"Everybody's saying it'll get weaker into 2026 and even beyond," he said.
"We are living in a powder keg and I think that is kind of your ultimate floor," he added.
(Reporting by Florence Tan; Additional reporting by Seher Dareen in London; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Jacqueline Wong)