Brent crude prices jumped to a fresh four-year high on Thursday on concerns that the US-Iran war could worsen and lead to a protracted Middle East oil supply disruption that could hurt global economic growth.
Brent crude futures rose $4.28, or 3.63 per cent, to $122.31 a barrel as of 06:59 GMT, after touching an intraday high of $126.41, the loftiest since March 9, 2022. The front-month June contract, up for a ninth day, expires on Thursday. The more active July contract was at $112.49, up $2.05, or 1.86 per cent.
US West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.46, or 1.37 per cent, at $108.34 a barrel, the highest since April 7, extending a seven per cent gain in the previous session.
Brent has more than doubled year to date and WTI was up around 90 per cent.
Both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains, reflecting fears that the Iran conflict could choke global oil supplies for months to come, fuelling inflation and raising the risks of a global economic downturn.
US President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday.
The US and Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28 and it retaliated by closing off almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Amid a ceasefire that has paused combat, the US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.
Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what analysts say is the world's biggest energy disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the US insisting on discussing Iran's nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war.
"Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
In a sign the conflict and resulting energy supply disruptions are set to continue for longer, Trump spoke on Wednesday with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long US blockade, a White House official said.
"In the near term, market participants remain focused on the dynamics of the US-Iran conflict and the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.
"This focus currently outweighs the long-term implications of the potential waning influence of OPEC+ following the UAE's (United Arab Emirates) exit from the cartel."
The OPEC+ grouping of members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to agree a small increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in oil output quotas on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The meeting comes just after the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which is expected to deal a blow to the oil producer group's ability to control prices.
Although the Persian Gulf nation's exit would allow it to raise production after exports restart, analysts say that is unlikely to affect market fundamentals this year, especially with the Hormuz closure and other production disruptions from the war.
Analysts are now considering oil demand destruction to be the most likely way to alleviate the current tight supply situation.
ING analysts see about 1.6 million bpd of demand lost as consumers and end-users simply stop using oil products in some form because of high prices.
Though significant, "it’s clearly not enough to fill the supply gap we are currently facing," the analysts said in a note.
(Reporting by Colleen Howe and Trixie Yap, additional reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Sharon Singleton)