China's oil imports from Venezuela are expected to slump starting from February. This is as fewer tankers have managed to leave for Caracas' top crude buyer after the US claimed control of the OPEC producer, traders and analysts said.
The number of oil tankers departing Venezuela for China has fallen sharply after US President Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned ships. This was part of a pressure campaign on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that culminated in a US military operation.
After his capture, Trump claimed the US is in control of the country and began urging US companies to begin investing in the Venezuelan oil sector. However, the US has seized five Venezuela-linked vessels after announcing the blockade.
This prompted ship owners to u-turn their vessels away or return to the country's waters after loading to avoid the risk of seizure. About a dozen loaded tankers left Venezuela with their transponders switched off amid the US raid on January 3.
Most of them have returned to the country after Caracas' interim government negotiated a 50 million barrel oil supply deal with Washington. Three of those tankers have continued sailing towards Asia and are expected to arrive in China around late February.
The tankers are carrying about three million barrels of fuel oil and two million barrels of Merey heavy crude. Since the blockade started in December, 2.9 million barrels of crude have left Venezuela for Asia on three vessels, according to Kpler analyst Richard Ro.
The company also estimates another 2.6 million barrels of fuel oil passed the blockade. PDVSA did not reply to requests for comment on the tankers' departures or return.
The five million barrels set to arrive in China is equal to about 166,000 barrels per day. That is down from the average of 642,000 bpd exported to China in 2025, or 75 per cent of total average exports of 847,000 bpd last year.
China stocked up on Venezuelan oil late last year while millions of barrels are still in transit, meaning Chinese refiners are not in a rush to seek alternative supply. Kpler estimates 43 million barrels are heading East, while tracker Vortexa sees 52 million barrels.
China received a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in November, which dropped to around 450,000 bpd in December as tanks were full. Trading houses Trafigura and Vitol have begun marketing Venezuelan oil under the US mandate.
The drop in supply will likely hit independent Chinese refiners, known as teapots, that have been the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude. Venezuelan supply accounts for only around four per cent of China's total seaborne crude imports.
Some teapot buyers have orders for cargoes arriving in March and April that left Venezuela before the US blockade. They are awaiting the availability of future supplies with "great uncertainty," said a senior Chinese trader.
For the second quarter, Chinese teapots may be forced to seek alternatives such as Canada's Cold Lake and Access Western Blend. Traders say an expected diversion of Venezuelan oil to the US may push more Canadian supplies towards Asia.
The teapots typically process Venezuelan oil, mostly Merey and fuel oil, into road-paving bitumen. For the past few years, traders have branded Venezuelan oil into China as Malaysian or Brazilian supplies to circumvent US sanctions.
(Reporting by Chen Aizhu and Marianna Parraga; Editing by Florence Tan and Christian Schmollinger)