The stoppage of the last Russian oil flows to Europe, via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, has triggered a geopolitical clash that has blocked new EU sanctions on Russia and vital funding for Ukraine.
Druzhba, which translates as "friendship" in English, is a pipeline that carries crude oil from Russia to Eastern Europe, via Ukraine. The Soviet-era link was one of the most important Russian oil arteries, delivering crude from West Siberia to the industrial heartland in Europe including Belarus, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine.
At its peak, Druzhba pumped over one million barrels per day, over one per cent of global oil supply, according to Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft.
Most EU countries halted their Russian oil imports following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and by the start of this year Druzhba was carrying around 200,000 bpd to Hungary and Slovakia, according to Reuters calculations based on official data from the two countries.
The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia are outliers in the EU for maintaining close ties with Russia. They say buying oil elsewhere is more expensive and would endanger their energy security.
On February 12, the government of Ukraine said flows have been suspended for over two weeks, since January 27. Oil flows via Druzhba have been disrupted in the past and were usually reported by the countries involved within hours.
Ukraine has accused Russia of damaging the pipeline with drones. Russia, as well as Hungary and Slovakia, have accused Kyiv of stalling the repairs for political reasons.
Ukraine has not publicly disclosed details of the damage, nor a date for when it expects to resume deliveries via Druzhba. Kyiv says repairs are ongoing, but shelling by Russia poses security risks to these efforts.
A note submitted by Ukraine to a technical meeting of EU governments on oil supplies on February 25, seen by Reuters, said Russian attacks on January 27 had damaged an oil pumping station near the city of Brody and "technological and auxiliary equipment" of the Druzhba pipeline. Reuters could not independently verify the extent of damage because it could not access the sites.
Hungary retaliated against the stoppage of flows by vetoing new EU sanctions on Russia this week and blocked a new EU loan for Kyiv, straining Europe's pro-Ukrainian consensus on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the Ukraine war. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose party is trailing behind the opposition in polls ahead of an April 12 election, on Wednesday accused Ukraine of an "oil blockade".
Orban has cast the election as a choice between "war or peace", saying his opponents would drag Hungary into the Ukraine conflict. Slovakia has stopped providing emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine in response to the Druzhba dispute.
Kyiv relies on emergency electricity from EU countries because of extensive damage to its power infrastructure from Russian drone and missile attacks.
The EU has not said how it plans to break the deadlock on its new Russia sanctions, after talks between ministers on Monday failed to do so. Croatia has offered to replace oil from Druzhba by supplies via its Adria pipeline with non-Russian supplies shipped in by tankers.
Pipeline operator Janaf says Adria could deliver as much as 280,000 bpd of oil to Hungary and Slovakia, more than enough to replace the 200,000 bpd coming from Russia. Hungary's MOL has previously said Adria cannot deliver those volumes and that maintaining supplies via Druzhba is crucial to its operations.
MOL and Janaf said on Wednesday they would start tests to confirm Adria's capacity, with international observers present.
The halt of supplies via Druzhba has not triggered an immediate oil shortage in Hungary or Slovakia. Both countries have ordered an emergency release of stocks.
The cut in Druzhba flows has added to Russian oil production and export problems, according to traders and analysts. Russian oil flows to India and Turkey are set to drop in March-April due to US sanctions, leaving China as the main buyer of crude.
Ukrainian drone attacks have also damaged several refineries inside Russia, reducing its ability to process crude, which together with export problems may ultimately lead to production cuts, according to analysts.
Market jitters over supply disruptions from Russia alongside US-Iran tensions have supported benchmark crude oil prices above $70 per barrel, well above analysts' predictions of $60 per barrel this year.
(Reporting by Kate Abnett, Dmitry Zhdannikov; additional reporting by Ivana Sekularac, Andrew Gray and Barbara Lewis)