These days maritime weather forecasting is a scientific process to predict weather instead of using sea birds flights or drifting seaweed as in the past.
There are some who consider the science of weather forecasting to be simply educated guesswork. But without that "guesswork" ships and crew would face much greater risks of damage or delays – even death.
Reading statistics of major cargo claims from 1996 to 2000 conducted by P&I club GARD reveals that 27 percent of all claims were the result of heavy weather accounting for losses totalling a staggering US$16 million. And when you consider the added costs of delays and fuel the figures can be astronomical.
Studies show that using a qualified weather routing service can reduce fuel bills by five to ten percent.
So much for guesswork.
Very high accuracy
It is true that in many places around the world, it is still difficult to predict local showers much in advance. However, it is actually much easier to predict something like the track of a storm across the ocean, especially when armed with data about sea currents, salinity, temperature, air pressure and satellite readings – provided you have the expertise to interpret that information.
Most people are unaware of the massive developments made in weather forecasting over the past decade or so. Accuracy of three-day forecasts has improved from about 70 percent in the early 1980s to about 96 percent today. And since observations from polar orbiting satellites were implemented in the 1990s, the forecast quality is such as good in both the southern and northern hemispheres.
Trust and Reliability
Reliability is the key. When a ship captain considers the weather, he is looking to plan a voyage that preserves lives, cargo, fuel, time and money.
It is crucial that he can trust the information he receives. When the forecast is certain, the captain is able to plan his route with less margin for error and a much greater chance of arriving at his final destination safely, on time and on budget.
On modern vessels with fewer personnel, the crew is often so busy with other aspects of their voyage that there is a chance that the weather en route might be overlooked. That is, until Mother Nature delivers a sharp reminder as the ship sails into severe conditions.
This is why it is important to provide the Captain with user-friendly, onboard tools to minimise that risk and enable him to plan the optimum route according to the weather.
Science's wonderful era
In 1980s weather services were dependent on paper and pencil tools for work. Telex was used to send forecasts to ship captains.
Weather data on southern hemisphere voyages, for instance, was weak and three to five-day forecast reliability was poor.
Today, accurate ten-day forecasts are possible. Today´s services are based on advanced software onboard the vessel in combination with skilled meteorologists using specialised software and fleet webs.
These new technologies also enable ship operators to have a better understanding of what is happened at sea, the current status of the weather and what is expected to happen along the remaining voyage.
Said Lamey Tawfik
