Container volumes rebound but terminal capacity still lagging

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After the challenges posed by the economic downturn in 2009, almost all of the global container terminal operators saw a return to healthy growth last year, according to Drewry Maritime Research. However, the effects of the downturn are still to be seen in relatively low forecast capacity increases for many operators and for the industry as a whole.

Average terminal utilisation levels were generally up in 2010, and operators increased their EBITDA compared with 2009. The main international terminal operators broadly maintained their positions in 2010, with those with significant interests in Chinese ports achieving particularly high growth. PSA was the leading global terminal operator in 2010 (by equity TEU throughput), followed by Hutchison Ports, DP World, APM Terminals and the Cosco Group.

Global operators are now reactivating many terminal investments deferred during the financial crisis, but the current indications are that in the next five years demand growth will significantly outstrip capacity expansion, leading to rapidly rising utilisation levels in many ports and regions of the world. The world regions where this is likely to be most pronounced are the Far East and South-East Asia where average utilisation levels could exceed 90 percent by 2016 unless more capacity expansion projects are brought forward soon. Latin America and the Middle East will also see similar pressures, along with Africa to a lesser extent.

In mature markets such as North America and North Europe the pressure is less because demand growth is not expected to be as strong. Surprisingly, despite severe congestion in ports in India in particular, average utilisation levels in South Asia could fall by 2016 because there are a number of very large expansion projects in the pipeline. However, it remains to be seen whether they are all built to the scale and on the timing their developers say they will be.

Drewry has identified several emerging players who could break into the Top 20 global/international terminal operator league table in 2011. The terminal portfolios of China Shipping and China Merchants are rapidly becoming more international for example, while Shanghai International Ports Group (SIPG) now has its first international investment with a minority stake in APMT's Zeebrugge operations. It is no coincidence that all three of these operators are based in China and are seeking outlets to invest cash.

Other players are showing strong signs of pursuing international development too, notably the UAE-based Gulftainer, which has already found opportunities in Iraq and Brazil, and the Turkey-based Yildirim Group, which appears to be using its 20 percent stake in CMA-CGM as a springboard for terminal expansion.

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