Crude oil exports from Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports are forecast to fall next month as domestic refiners plan to increase their output after the end of maintenance and to produce more diesel to meet the demands of a deal struck this month between Washington and Moscow, two traders said.
Russian seaborne crude exports including Kazakh oil transit through Russia's pipeline system may fall by some 0.1-0.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from the previous month, the traders added, citing preliminary lifting plans.
Russia and the US agreed a diesel deal on October 9 to stabilise the world market, which is short of the fuel and experiencing a global price spike due to supply disruptions in the Middle East as a result of the Iran war.
Russian refineries have raised processing and increased diesel output in the second half of the month after the government granted exporters quotas for diesel exports, which were banned earlier this year amid fuel shortages, and the US announced an easing of sanctions on Russian fuel exports.
Supply uncertainty is expected to persist in November and the plans are subject to revision as attacks on Russian energy sites by Ukraine may change the situation, the traders said.
Russia's declining oil output will not help to increase domestic crude runs quickly, they added.
While data on Russia's oil output is classified, recent OPEC data showed a decline in production and in September, Russia downgraded its oil output forecast for 2026 to a 17-year low.
Ongoing risks in the Black Sea are also curtailing Russian oil exports from its Novorossiysk port, the traders said. They estimated loading delays of nearly three weeks, which is also weighing on overall levels of exports from the western ports.
Traders also expect less Urals oil to be shipped through the Northern Sea Route to Asia as navigation normally comes to an end in November due to worsening weather.
This may also push oil export volumes lower.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Alexander Smith)
