Oil prices fell about five per cent to two-week lows on Monday as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington and Tehran played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough.
Brent crude futures were down $4.97, or 4.8 per cent, at $98.57 a barrel at 11:19 ET (15:19 GMT) and US West Texas Intermediate futures were down $4.85, or five per cent, at $91.75. Both contracts traded at their lowest since May 7.
Iran's top negotiator and its foreign minister were in Doha for talks with Qatar's prime minister on a potential deal with the US to end the three-month-old war, an official briefed on the visit said Monday. Both sides said they have made progress on a memorandum of understanding that would halt the war and give negotiators 60 days to reach a final deal.
"Even though it's not done, there seems to be some hope that we will start to get some oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
In a lengthy social media post on Monday, US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were going "nicely," but warned of fresh attacks if they failed.
He urged more Arab and Muslim states to sign up to the Abraham Accords, which were brokered during Trump's first term in office and aim to normalise ties between Arab and other Muslim-majority states and Israel.
"That could mean a significant reduction of risk premium in the Middle East, especially if a deal with Iran can be done and Iran gives up their nuclear material," Flynn said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Iran was negotiating an end to the war and was not currently discussing nuclear issues.
Even if a peace deal is reached, analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait will take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired.
"The underlying supply shortfall of 10-11 (million barrels per day) of crude oil does not go away immediately and will see markets still drawing inventories until Middle Eastern crude production is back online, which is months away," said Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh.
"We continue to believe that the key factors for the oil market to watch should be the physical oil flows; and so far, flows through the strait remain restricted," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Ship-tracking data showed three liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the strait in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months.
(Additional reporting by Ahmad Gaddar in London; Florence Tan and Sudarshan Varadhan in Singapore. Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Gus Trompiz, Mark Potter, Rod Nickel)
