Asia's imports of crude oil in August are still well short of levels prior to the start of the Iran conflict, raising further questions as to just how much crude is actually leaving the Middle East.
The top-importing continent is expected to see arrivals of 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, slightly down from July's 23.36 million bpd, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Imports are also almost four million bpd, or 14 per cent, down from the average of 26.91 million bpd in the three months to the end of February.
The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to respond with missile and drone attacks against US bases and infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, which led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global crude and refined products moved prior to the war.
The still weak arrivals of crude at Asian ports challenge claims by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright that flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising and that total oil exports from the Middle East are nearly back to pre-conflict levels.
There is obviously a lag between when crude is loaded and when it arrives at ports across Asia, but if Wright is correct that nearly 15 million bpd is leaving the Middle East, it would be logical to assume that deliveries would reflect some increase.
Wright hasn't given specifics to back his claims, but he did say in early August that over an unspecified seven-day period flows out of the strait were nine million bpd, taking total exports from the Middle East to 15 million bpd once shipments from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman are added.
The most Kpler, which uses satellites as well as AIS data to track vessels, was able to see exiting the Strait of Hormuz in any week in August was 4.26 million bpd in the seven days beginning August 3.
For August as a whole Kpler has tracked exports of crude via the Strait of Hormuz at 2.3 million bpd, down from 4.49 million bpd in July and 15.82 million bpd in the three months leading up to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The major-importing country closest to the Middle East is India, so any sharp rise in exports from the gulf region would show up in Indian port arrivals first, given the voyage time from the Gulf of Oman to India's west coast is no more than a week.
India's August crude imports are estimated at 4.51 million bpd, down from 5.07 million bpd in July and the lowest since March, according to Kpler.
Arrivals from the Middle East are estimated at 1.45 million bpd, down slightly from July's 1.50 million bpd and just over half of the 2.88 million bpd average for the three months to the end of February.
What the import data shows is that if there is a strong recovery in exports from the Middle East, they aren't heading to India.
There has been some recovery in Asia's arrivals of crude from the Middle East, with imports of 11.11 million bpd being discharged at Asian ports in August, up from 10.76 million bpd in July.
Asia's imports from the Middle East have risen from April's 7.01 million bpd, which was the lowest in Kpler records going back to 2013, but are still down from the 15.82 million bpd in the three months leading up to the start of the conflict.
It's also worth noting that arrivals in July and August were likely boosted by cargoes that left the Middle East in the brief ceasefire between the US and Iran from mid-June to early July.
It's also the case that if 15 million bpd of crude has been leaving the Middle East since early August, that much of this will only show up in September arrivals, especially in countries with longer voyage times such as Japan, South Korea and China.
But as yet there is no evidence that Asia's crude imports from the Middle East are even close to what they were prior to the Iran conflict.
(By Clyde Russell, Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
