OPINION | War or peace? For oil markets, the Ukraine outcome is insignificant

US President Donald Trump’s high-stakes diplomacy to resolve the war in Ukraine is unlikely to jolt oil and gas markets, no matter the outcome.

Russia has faced multiple rounds of western sanctions and restrictions since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which have dealt severe blows to the country’s giant oil and gas industry, sapping Moscow of vital revenue and reshaping global energy markets.

Russian gas now accounts for just 18 per cent of European imports, down from 45 per cent in 2021, while the bloc’s oil imports from Russia have fallen to three per cent from around 30 per cent over that time. The European Union plans to fully phase out Russian energy by 2027.

Meanwhile, India has increased its share of Russian crude to 38 per cent of total imports from 16 per cent in 2021, according to Kpler. China and Turkey have also notably ramped up their Russian oil purchases.

The war in Ukraine has left over a million dead or wounded, so its conclusion would be welcomed by many. Energy markets, however, are not apt to register much of a reaction unless there is a full ceasefire along with the lifting of all US and European sanctions.

And that is long shot. Given the more probable set of scenarios, oil and gas markets are unlikely to be rattled by the fallout from either last Friday’s summit between Trump and Russian President Valdimir Putin or the US president’s meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday.

Unlikely peace

Full peace in Ukraine remains highly improbable. Trump’s apparent support for a comprehensive settlement, rather than a ceasefire, has widened the gap between America, Ukraine and Europe. At the same time, his suggestion of US post-settlement security guarantees for Ukraine is likely to face resistance from Moscow.

In other words, don’t bet on a full normalization of relations between Russia and the West any time soon.

Trump might pressure Zelenskiy into accepting a temporary or partial halt in fighting. But even then, Europe is unlikely to resume Russian energy imports while Putin remains in power. Before 2022, Europe accounted for nearly half of Russia’s 4.7 million barrels per day of oil exports and 75 per cent of its gas exports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The Trump administration could attempt to ease some sanctions unilaterally, but this could face opposition in congress, including from Republicans, unless a broad peace deal is reached.

Breakdown

Perhaps the more likely scenario – Trump failing to broker a deal – also shouldn’t have a major impact on energy markets.

The US could tighten sanctions, particularly by targeting buyers of Russian energy, as Trump has already threatened. But the US president said on Friday that he would delay so-called "secondary sanctions" on China due to what he described as “successful” talks with Putin.

Of course, India already faces secondary tariffs over its Russian oil purchases. Earlier this month, Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, citing the country’s continued oil imports from Russia. The new tariff, effective August 27, will bring total tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent.

But even though Indian buyers already appear to be reducing their Russian oil purchases, the impact on global supplies has been minimal as China has increased its intake of Russian crude.

Ultimately, China matters far more in this story, and it’s unlikely to significantly curb its Russian oil imports, not least because it considers its relationship with Moscow to be strategic.

Chinese and Russian oil producers, refiners and traders have already built a sprawling network of tankers and insurers to circumvent Western sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.

Additionally, US tariffs on Chinese goods already average 55 per cent, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Additional tariffs could raise costs for US consumers, and Beijing could retaliate, potentially by withholding rare earths or other critical minerals, all outcomes Trump would want to avoid – and Beijing knows this.

In short, Trump appears to have little stomach for the potential consequences, and even if he were to tighten sanctions, this likely wouldn’t materially affect China’s ability to import oil.

Cushioned markets

Crucially, oil and gas markets appear to be entering a period of oversupply, meaning any possible disruption in Russian volumes can easily be offset. The IEA expects oil supply to exceed demand by 1.76 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 3.0 million bpd in 2026, driven by rising output from OPEC+ and the Americas.

Global liquefied natural gas markets are also expanding rapidly, with new supply coming online in the coming years across the US, Qatar, Canada, and elsewhere. LNG capacity is projected to grow from 500 million tons per year in 2024 to 800 mtpa by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency.

While Trump’s foreign policy remains unpredictable, a few things seem clear. He can’t, as he once claimed, end the Ukraine war in one day, and what he can do is unlikely to have much of an impact on oil and gas markets.

(By Ron Bousso. Editing by Marguerita Choy)