US natural gas futures fell about three per cent on Monday on record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.7 cents, or 3.2 per cent, to settle at $4.419 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:53 a.m. EST (1353 GMT). That price decline, which pushed the front-month out of technically overbought territory for the first time in 13 days, came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale basin in West Texas remained in negative territory for an eighth day this month as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin.
It was the 30th time Waha prices traded below zero this year and compares with an average of $1.29 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual.
There was about four per cent more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through December 2, which should limit heating demand. But with the weather still turning seasonally colder, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 116.0 bcfd this week to 116.9 bcfd next week.
Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big US LNG export plants operating in the US rose to 17.9 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas rose to a record 18.6 bcfd on November 15 as flows to Venture Global LNG’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana hit a record 4.1 bcfd. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some to fuel operations.
In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel continued to move across the Atlantic Ocean to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy’s 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analysts’ comments.
The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
