Liquefied natural gas demand in Asia is quietly recovering from the shock of losing almost 20 per cent of global supply to the Iran conflict as top buyer China shows signs of returning to the market.
The biggest-importing region is on track for arrivals of 21.83 million tonnes in June, the most for five months and also up from the 21.55 million tonnes in the same month last year, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Asia's LNG imports had dropped to a six-year low of 18.74 million tonnes in April after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, stopped shipments from Qatar, which shipped 80.9 million tonnes in 2025.
China only just held onto its status as the world's biggest LNG importer in 2025 as imports dropped to 66.48 million tonnes, slightly ahead of Japan.
For the first five months of 2026 it seemed certain that China would drop to second place because its utilities steered away from buying spot cargoes as prices surged in the wake of the Iran war.
The price of spot LNG for delivery to North Asia jumped to a three-year high of $25.30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to March 20, up 143 per cent from the $10.40 that prevailed before the Iran conflict.
Prices subsequently eased to $16.05 per mmBtu by mid-April, but have since climbed to end at $18.80 in the week to June 5.
Part of the rise in prices stems from China taking more of the fuel, with imports forecast by Kpler to rise to reach 4.48 million tonnes in June, down slightly from the four-month high of 4.74 million in May.
China's imports in May and June are also well ahead of the 3.78 million tonnes for March and April's eight-year low of 3.63 million tonnes.
However, China's increased appetite for LNG has been more than matched by Japan, which is also on track to see imports rise in June, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 5.33 million tonnes, a three-month high and also above the 4.91 million tonnes from June 2025.
South Korea, the third-biggest LNG importer, is forecast to have arrivals of 3.26 million tonnes in June, down slightly from both May's 3.37 million and 3.48 million in June last year.
The loss of cargoes from Qatar was most felt by South Asian buyers, with India's LNG imports dropping to a three-year low of 1.67 million tonnes in March.
However, they are expected to recover to 2.09 million tonnes in June, just behind the 2.11 million from June last year, as India sources LNG from alternative suppliers such as Angola, Nigeria and the United States.
Pakistan, which used to buy almost exclusively from Qatar, has struggled to find alternatives, with June imports expected at just 210,000 tonnes, with one cargo from Oman and one from Qatar, which has seen a handful of vessels manage to exit the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.
Pakistan's imports in June are about one-third of the 620,000 tonnes from the same month in 2025, but have recovered somewhat from the 10-year low of 70,000 tonnes in April.
On the supply side, the initial surge of US LNG that headed to Asia in the wake of the start of the war against Iran is starting to ease, with exports of 2.73 million tonnes in June, down from the record high of 4.07 million in May.
However, US shipments to Asia are still running at rates well above the average of 1.15 million tonnes in the three months leading up to the attack on Iran.
It appears that US LNG is switching back to Europe, with Kpler estimating exports of 4.99 million tonnes in June, up from 4.53 million in May, which was the lowest since October 2024.
(By Clyde Russell, Editing by Sonali Paul)
