Saudi Arabia might cut its official June crude selling prices (OSP) to Asia from record levels as spot premiums eased and as demand cooled after weeks of supply disruption from the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to a Reuters survey of industry sources.
The June OSP for flagship Arab Light crude might slide to a premium of $7.50 to $14.50 a barrel above the average Dubai and Oman quotes, four sources said in the survey, $5 to $12 a barrel lower than the OSP for May.
The wide range of forecasts reflects lingering uncertainty among Asian buyers whose crude supply and price expectations have varied after the war disrupted their supplies. The expected price cut follows a sharp weakening in the spot market since late March.
The cash Dubai price's premium to swaps fell to $9.17 on Monday, down from a historical high of more than $60 in March after the war hit supply, Reuters data showed.
Dubai's premium has averaged $15.22 a barrel so far in April, less than half of March's average of $38.30, the data showed. Spot Oman premiums followed those of Dubai.
Even though there is no end in sight to the conflict, physical crude prices have softened as demand slowed after an initial wave of panic buying. Replacement cargoes from the US, West Africa and elsewhere are expected to arrive from late April, while refiners in India and Southeast Asia have increased purchases of Russian crude under US waivers.
In China, the top buyer of Saudi crude, refiners have been squeezed by weak margins as rising feedstock costs outpaced fuel price hikes while Beijing has curbed refined fuel exports. Chinese refiners planned to buy just 20 million barrels of crude, the lowest volume on record, from Saudi Arabia in May after the seller hiked its price to a record high.
Saudi Aramco has been using the Red Sea port of Yanbu to export Arab Light crude after the war restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The survey respondents expected June OSPs for other grades to fall by $5 to $12 a barrel.
Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth day of each month. Saudi Aramco, which sets the prices, as a matter of policy does not comment on them.
(Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)
