UK transport and trade consultancy MDS Transmodal has predicted that growing consumer demand within China, coupled with the decline in the West's consumption of Chinese-made goods may herald long-term changes in the pattern of world trade.
After analysing Chinese trade data for the second quarter of the year, Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal concluded that the impact on the import/export balance of container traffic was dramatic.
"In the second quarter of 2008 there were only 56 tonnes of Chinese imports for every 100 tonnes exported. One year later, that figure has grown to 80 tonnes. If that trend continues, container lines will have to seriously address their strategies."
He added that Chinese exports drove the overall demand for global shipping capacity. "A year-on-year fall of 23 percent for the first quarter of 2009 has been followed by a 22 percent decline in the second quarter.
"The best that can be said is the decline has been arrested. Second quarter results are 24 percent lower than in the third quarter of 2008, the peak quarter of all time."
The consultancy has also examined the destination of Chinese exports and concluded that the decline in West's consumption Chinese goods was widespread.
"Our analysis of the trade data provides tangible evidence of a restructuring of the economies of the Far East and the Western world," said Mr Garratt. "China, and probably the rest of the Far East except Japan, is sucking in the exports it needs to support its domestic economy that continues to expand, without needing to export in the same quantities it used to."
