Oil exports and transit flows from Russia’s western ports may fall by around 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from current month to about 1.8 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations and two industry sources.
Russia is set to continue reducing oil loadings at Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk ports in March as Western sanctions are curbing Asian demand for Urals and complicating access to tanker capacity, while ice conditions worsen and shipping routes lengthen.
The February loading plan already envisaged a nine per cent decline in volumes from January, to about two million bpd from 2.2 million bpd.
Actual loadings at the western ports in January averaged around 2.1 million bpd, while shipments in the first two 10-day periods of February ran slightly below two million bpd, according to the sources and Reuters calculations.
The final March export volumes of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO crude grades will depend on several conflicting factors, and any rollover of February cargoes could lift next month’s export statistics.
Shipments of Urals via the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary have been halted since January 27.
It is not yet clear when, or if, transit via Ukraine to Europe will resume. A February 23 drone attack on Transneft’s Kaleykino pumping station near Almetyevsk in Tatarstan reduced crude intake into its system by roughly 0.25 million bpd.
Reuters has not yet been able to assess its long-term impact. Worsening ice conditions in the Gulf of Finland could further tighten tanker availability and depress Urals loading volumes.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
