According to the latest publication from UK-based Ocean Shipping Consultants, "World Cement Trade & Shipping", the global cement trade is forecast to increase in the next 15 years, taking the annual volume up from an estimated 169 million tonnes in 2011 to around 176 million tonnes by 2015, and almost 206 million by 2025.
This represents an overall forward expansion of over 22 percent, though growth will be far from uniform across individual countries and regions. Imports will be dominated by Africa and Asia, while Africa and North America will also witness large-scale growth, as against limited expansion for Europe, Asia, and C/S America, and eventual decline for some other markets.
For cement trade moved by sea, the profile of development reflects, to a large extent, that of total trade. The percentage of cement/clinker trade moved by sea transport approximated 76 percent in 2010, with this level witnessed also in recent years.
According to the report, bulk cement shipping costs – and their volatility – are essentially determined by factors outside the cement sector. Developments in general dry bulk shipping markets have had massive effects on the international cement trade in recent years, with the initial prevalence of low freight rates favouring a number of new shipping routes previously unfeasible. The subsequent unprecedented rise in shipping costs caused CIF prices to reach uncompetitive levels on certain routes, and most recently, the collapse in freight rates occurred at the same time as a marked decline in cement import demand.
The specialist cement carrier fleet is a mixture of vessel types and sizes, with a similarly diverse employment profile. The aggregate world fleet comprises 95 self-unloading vessels and 331 other specialist cement carriers, these numbers associated with total tonnage levels of approximately 0.93 million DWT and 1.8 million DWT respectively.
As of late 2011, there are ten specialist cement carriers under construction or on order, totalling 166,200DWT. The newbuildings are predominantly of large size at 15,000DWT and above. All of them are self-unloaders. As for the general bulk carrier fleet, the current orderbook (as of late 2011) indicates an estimated volume of 72 million DWT, accounting for 11.9 percent of the existing fleet. Of the total almost 44 percent is represented by the Capesize class (100,000+ DWT), against 12.4 percent from Handysize and 18.2 percent from Handymax (including Supramax). With almost all of the new tonnage due to be delivered over 2012-13, the scale of potential fleet growth for these sectors is sizeable, and indicate continuous fleet expansion, at least over the near-term, despite an expected increase in scrapping volumes. This could have marked implications for cement trades.
