Limited shipments and a strong rouble supported Russian wheat export prices last week, which approached those of Black Sea competitors, analysts said.
The price of Russian wheat with 12.5 per cent protein content for free-on-board delivery at the end of March was $233 a tonne at the end of last week, unchanged from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.
Weather problems that have affected the new harvest in France and the US may provide further support for prices, he said.
The situation with shipments from Russian ports remains difficult, Rylko said, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, and ice prevents ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic seas. In the Sea of Azov, however, he said convoys of ships have begun to pass through even though it is covered with ice.
High Russian prices mean some importers have been buying grain shipped to Constanta, in Romania, and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria, rather than from Russian ports, due to a freight advantage, the Sovecon agency said in a weekly note.
It estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5 per cent protein at $232-$236 a tonne FOB, compared with $231-$235 at the end of the previous week.
Its estimate for February wheat exports is 3.3 million tonnes. IKAR has forecast wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tonnes for the month, while rail carrier Rusagrotrans said nearly 1.8 million tonnes of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 16.
Russia's southern regions are preparing for the spring sowing campaign, which is scheduled to start in March. "No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. Ice crust on some fields, in our view, does not pose a serious risk at this stage. It should gradually melt as temperatures rise", Sovecon said.
Sovecon raised its 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecast by 2.1 million tonnes to 85.9 million tonnes last week.
(Reporting by Olga Popova; Editing by Barbara Lewis)
