Ukraine has cut its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season by up to 12 per cent from a previous projection, its agriculture minister told Reuters on Monday, citing Russian attacks on the country's southern Odessa port hub.
"We are currently targeting 38–40 million tonnes," Taras Vysotskyi said in the first official export forecast since escalating Russian attacks in late July effectively halted shipments from Odessa ports, which are vital to Ukraine and the global agricultural market.
The ministry had forecast exports of 43 million tonnes this season before the escalation.
Russia has in recent weeks attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals and vessels entering and leaving the ports almost daily.
The lower grain export forecast underscores the damage the attacks are inflicting on a country that ships more than 90 per cent of its grain exports through the seaports. Agricultural products account for the largest share of Ukraine's overall exports.
The disruption could result in a grain storage shortfall of 11 million tonnes, the agriculture ministry said on Monday.
Earlier this month, Vysotskyi said losses to the agricultural sector from the port blockade could reach $3 billion.
The ministry's forecast was broadly in line with estimates by APK-Inform analysts, who on Monday cut their export forecast by 8.6 per cent to 39.4 million tonnes due to the export disruptions.
The consultancy said in a report that it had cut its export forecast for wheat, corn and barley. The estimate included 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 24 million tonnes of corn and 1.5 million tonnes of barley, it said.
(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Daniel Flynn and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
