The number of vessels transiting the Bab El Mandeb Strait (heading to/from the Red Sea) averaged 31 vessels per day across July 25 and 26, down by 50 per cent versus the second quarter average in tonnage terms, new data published by Clarksons Research revealed.
The number of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) crossing the Bab El Mandeb has declined, averaging one per day over the past week, down from an average of three per day across Q2.
Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz remain at low levels, with 13 transits per day across the weekend, down 90 per cent versus pre-conflict levels, while transits in tonnage terms are down 95 per cent.
Clarksons said VLCC crossings through the Strait of Hormuz remain very limited, with six transits reported over the past week down 95 per cent versus “typical” levels.
The flow of energy out of the Persian Gulf has been very constrained in recent days, with approximately one million barrels per day (bpd) of crude leaving the gulf in the past week, down from 10 million bpd in early July and 15 million bpd pre-conflict while no LNG carriers/very large gas carriers (VLGCs) appear to have transited the strait in over 10 days.
Clarksons added that “energy” shipping markets remain very elevated, with VLCC earnings firming 13 per cent last week to US$145,000/day while supportive arbitrage dynamics saw VLGC spot earnings rise 24 per cent week-on-week to US$172,000/day (now just around 10 per cent below May’s record high).
An extended avoidance of the Bab El Mandeb may increase tanker voyage distances as flows via Yanbu (exported 3.8 million bpd in the past week, up three million bpd vs normal) are re-routed (e.g., Yanbu to China via the Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope is around 15,000 nautical miles, twice the current distance via the Gulf of Aden).
Longer-term planning of infrastructure investment to reduce future reliance on Hormuz continues; export capacity from bypass pipelines could rise from eight million bpd today to 17 million bpd if all projects are built with these developments often involving longer shipping distances.
