Trump's wind war threatens embattled Orsted's $9.4b survival plan

Danish offshore wind developer Orsted cut its 2025 profit outlook on Friday, just prior to shareholders approving a $9.4 billion emergency rights issue as it seeks to avert a looming credit downgrade.

Once celebrated as a trailblazer in offshore wind, the state-controlled group now finds itself in dire straits, grappling with industry-wide challenges as risks pile up on its US projects due to President Donald Trump's opposition to wind power.

Adding to its troubles, low wind speeds in July and August, a delay to a project under construction off Taiwan, and a global reduction in the huge subsidies that keep the controversial industry afloat, prompted it on Friday to cut its operating profit outlook for 2025.

The stakes are high for the Danish firm, which has transformed itself from oil producer DONG Energy into a global renewables leader, its market value increasing fivefold between its 2016 IPO and a 2021 peak.

But supply chain disruptions, surging interest rates, project delays, and popular anti-wind policies have battered the offshore wind sector, sending Orsted’s shares tumbling by 85 per cent from their peak.

At the heart of the drama are Orsted’s US projects Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind, both of which have been thrown into uncertainty. Two-thirds of the fresh capital it is seeking to raise is earmarked for Sunrise Wind, a project that saw potential co-investors flee after the Trump administration ordered Equinor to halt a neighboring wind farm in April.

US officials also issued a stop-work order for the nearly completed Revolution Wind facility last month, prompting the joint venture running the project to file a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the decision.

The rights issue was critical for Orsted’s survival and its ability to retain its credit rating.

"We do this to ensure that we can continue to lead the expansion of offshore wind in our core markets here in Europe for the critical years to come," CEO Rasmus Errboe told reporters at a meeting of EU countries' energy ministers in Copenhagen on Thursday.

Ratings agency SP Global warned that the equity raise might only buy the company three to six months of relief from construction delays before facing additional credit pressures.

SP already downgraded Orsted to BBB- in August, the lowest investment-grade rating. Any further downgrade would push it into junk territory - a label that would impact its ability to finance future projects.

Norwegian state-controlled energy firm Equinor, a 10 per cent shareholder in Orsted, has thrown a lifeline, pledging to inject up to six billion crowns ($941.2 million) into the rights issue.

Equinor CFO Torgrim Reitan described the moment as a crucial juncture. "We find it important to be a long-term and supportive investor in a period like this," Reitan said, hinting at a deeper strategic collaboration between the two companies.

(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Jacpob Gronholt-Pedersen in Copenhagen and Nora Buli in Oslo; Editing by Jan Harvey)