Venezuela is likely to retain its seat in OPEC even if US President Donald Trump successfully forces a change of government in the oil-rich country. The US is seeking to bolster its alliance with the cartel even as it expands its own sphere of influence.
The US has recently been increasing pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to step down, building up a large military presence in the Caribbean and carrying out strikes against drug-smuggling boats. The Trump administration’s new national security strategy makes no secret of the White House’s plans.
It states that Washington seeks to, "restore American pre-eminence," in the Western Hemisphere. In Venezuela, that almost certainly means pushing for a government that will provide US refiners and oil producers access to the South American country’s vast oil and gas reserves.
This 21st-century Monroe Doctrine might suggest that the White House will seek to remove Caracas from the grip of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), given America’s longstanding hostility towards the oil cartel.
Congress has advanced in recent decades several bipartisan versions of the NOPEC (no oil producing and exporting cartels) bill that would enable antitrust lawsuits against state-owned oil companies, though the initiatives were never voted into law.
And in 2018, Trump told the UN General Assembly that OPEC was, “ripping off the rest of the world.” But that is unlikely to be the case today.
Trump has nurtured a close economic and military partnership with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as the neighbouring United Arab Emirates. So the US president would likely not pressure a new Caracas government to cease being an OPEC member - especially if it is one the US might wield significant power over.
Venezuela was among the five founding members of OPEC in 1960. The country’s importance within the group has nevertheless diminished in recent decades due to declining oil output, political instability and heavy US sanctions.
Venezuela’s production dwindled from a peak of 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1970 to a low of 665,000 bpd in 2021 before slightly recovering to below one million bpd in 2024, according to the Energy Institute's Statistical Review, reflecting years of disrepair and lack of investment by state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
But Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, which reached around 303 billion barrels in 2023, roughly 17 per cent of global reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Most of the reserves are located in the Orinoco Belt region.
The US has been closely intertwined with Venezuela’s oil industry ever since the South American country’s first major oil discoveries in the 1920s. That relationship continued as Venezuela became the world’s second-largest oil producer by the 1930s, with the country’s vast resources attracting top Western oil companies including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Shell.
This all changed, however, after Venezuela nationalised its energy industry, first in the 1970s and again under President Hugo Chavez in the 2000s. Chevron is today the only US oil company operating in the heavily sanctioned country, thanks to a US waiver to sanctions imposed in 2019.
The removal of US sanctions on Venezuela would likely lead to a rapid return of US and European companies. And, according to estimates by Washington-based consultancy Rapidan Energy, the country could probably ramp up its production by around one million bpd over 10 years under a stable, US-aligned government.
While plucking Venezuela out of OPEC might appear like the next logical step in such a scenario, that does not appear to be aligned with Trump’s broader economic and geopolitical interests.
Trump has already established closer ties with OPEC - and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia in particular - than many of his predecessors. OPEC proved beneficial to the first Trump administration during the COVID-19 pandemic.
A collapse in demand sent crude prices plunging, leaving small US shale drillers teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, but OPEC successfully stabilised the market by introducing record supply cuts to prop up prices.
More recently, when Trump returned to the White House in January, one of his first actions was urging Saudi Arabia and OPEC to boost production to help lower energy prices for US consumers. Riyadh appeared to acquiesce when OPEC and its allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, moved to unwind years of production cuts in April.
From OPEC’s perspective, the desire to keep Venezuela within its orbit will be intense, given the size of the country’s potential production and the apparent fractures already growing in the cartel.
"President Trump prioritises good relations with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. For those two co-founders of OPEC, keeping Venezuela in OPEC is more important than it is for Trump," said Rapidan Energy President Bob McNally.
Of course, much is still up in the air. It is unclear whether Trump’s high-stakes pressure campaign on Venezuela’s leadership will be successful.
And even if it is, the form it takes matters. A military intervention followed by a disorderly transition could delay any revival of Venezuela’s oil production and potentially lead to pushback among the population.
But one thing is clear: Trump is unlikely to turn Venezuela’s 65-year-old OPEC membership into a battleground.
(Ron Bousso Editing by Marguerita Choy)
