Japan's biggest oil and gas explorer Inpex on Wednesday raised its full-year net profit forecast, citing higher expected crude oil prices and a weaker yen amid the Middle East crisis.
Inpex revised its annual net profit forecast for 2026 to a range of JPY350 billion to JPY450 billion ($2.2 billion-$2.9 billion), from a previous estimate of JPY330 billion. The revised outlook implies an 11 per cent drop to a 14 per cent increase from the previous year.
"We adopted a range-based outlook due to uncertainty over the Middle East conflict," Senior Managing Executive Officer Daisuke Yamada told reporters.
Inpex raised its assumption for average Brent crude oil prices to $70-$83 per barrel from a previous estimate of $63, while revising its dollar/yen assumption to JPY154-156 from JPY151.
Due to lower crude output in Abu Dhabi following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Inpex, which holds stakes in several oil fields there, cut its annual production forecast to 630,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on an equity interest basis from 655,000 barrels projected in February.
For the January-March quarter, net profit fell 13.5 per cent from a year earlier to JPY109.4 billion, hurt by lower selling prices.
Before the Iran war began in February, Japan relied on the Middle East for 95 per cent of its crude imports. The effective closure of the Strait has forced Japan to seek alternatives.
"Our policy remains to prioritise energy supplies to Japanese buyers," Senior Executive Vice President Toshiaki Takimoto said, adding that the company was also committed to actively supplying core markets including Australia and Southeast Asia.
Condensate from its Ichthys liquefied natural gas project in Australia was shipped to Japan on a priority basis, while crude from an Azerbaijani oil field was also diverted to Japan after the Iran war erupted, Takimoto said.
Inpex expects Ichthys to ship an average of about 10 cargoes per month in 2026. Regarding a possible industrial action at Ichthys, Yamada said: "We will engage in sincere discussions with the Ichthys labour union to prevent a major strike."
(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
