The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) has recommended a zero-catch limit for the Barents Sea capelin for the 2026 season.
This advice follows a December 2025 assessment showing that the maturing biomass has dropped to 123,641 tonnes, the lowest level recorded since 1995.
Data from the 2025 autumn survey indicated that the survival of two- and three-year-old fish has been exceptionally low.
Additionally, the number of one-year-old recruits remains well below the long-term average, despite an increase in the average weight of older fish compared to 2024.
The JRN-AFWG utilizes the Bifrost projection model, which accounts for natural mortality and predation by cod, to estimate spawning biomass on April 1, 2026.
Without any fishing activity, the median spawning biomass is projected to be 29,000 tonnes, far below the management reference point of 200,000 tonnes.
Under the established harvest control rule, a quota is only set if there is at least a 95 per cent probability that the spawning biomass remains above the reference point.
For the 2026 season, the calculated probability of meeting this threshold is zero per cent.
While the 2024 total allowable catch (TAC) was set at 196,000 tonnes, the 2025 quota was also zero in accordance with scientific advice.
Russia reported 700 tonnes of capelin by-catch in other fisheries during 2025, but no targeted commercial autumn fishery has occurred since 1999.
Capelin serves as a critical forage fish for various predators in the Arctic, and management strategies prioritize maintaining sufficient biomass for the ecosystem.
The Joint Norwegian-Russian Fishery Commission (JNRFC) will review this recommendation to finalize the 2026 regulations.
