Russia's Polar branch of VNIRO expects the Barents Sea cod stock and total allowable catch (TAC) to begin a gradual recovery from 2027 after a decade of decline.
Director Konstantin Sokolov told Mediapaluba on October 14 that the institute expects the 2027 catch limit to be about 10 per cent above the previous year's. It expects catches to reach approximately 400,000 tonnes by 2031.
The joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic fisheries working group, made up of scientists from VNIRO and Norway's Institute of Marine Research, has advised 2027 catches of no more than 312,667 tonnes.
That figure is about 10 per cent above the 285,000-tonne quota agreed for 2026. The group attributes the increase mainly to the 2021 year class entering the fishable stock, although recruitment overall remains weak.
The joint Norwegian–Russian fisheries commission is due to set the final 2027 TAC before the end of the year.
The 2026 quota was the lowest since 1991. Spawning-stock biomass this year is the lowest since 2000 and is projected to remain below the 460,000-tonne precautionary reference point until 2029.
Total Barents Sea cod catch stood at approximately one million tonnes in 2013. Sokolov attributed the subsequent decline to ecosystem and climate changes.
"Cod is an ecosystem-forming species for the Northern fisheries basin," he said. "It is one of the pillars on which our entire shelf Barents Sea system rests."
