Vietnam's seafood exports slow down in May amid US tariff pressure

Vietnam’s seafood exports showed signs of "cooling" in May, reaching US$851 million, up just 2.7 per cent year-on-year, and resulting in what the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said is the lowest monthly growth so far in 2025.

Total exports in the first five months still climbed 18.2 per cent to US$4.2 billion, "highlighting the sector’s resilience in the face of market volatility, especially with the impact of new US tariff measures," said VASEP.

US tariffs prompt short-term shipment shifts

Since April 2025, following the US Government’s announcement of a temporary 10 per cent tariff on a wide range of imports from Vietnam — including seafood — exporters have scrambled to adjust.

Companies accelerated shipments to the US in April and early May to mitigate the risk of being hit with higher duties — potentially up to 46 per cent — once the 90-day temporary tariff window ends on July 9.

VASEP said that as a result, exports to the US in May still rose 9.7 per cent year-on-year to nearly US$160 million. However, several exporters noted that shipments slowed significantly after May 20 as they adopted a more cautious approach.

Rising costs, policy uncertainty, and market volatility have collectively dampened trading activity and weighed on the month’s overall export figures, the association remarked.

Shrimp leads growth; pangasius and tuna struggle

VASEP said shrimp remained a "standout performer," with May exports rising 12.4 per cent to US$363 million — accounting for over 42 per cent of the total value. For the January–May period, shrimp exports exceeded US$1.66 billion, up 28.3 per cent, driven by robust demand from the US, Japan, and CPTPP markets.

In contrast, pangasius exports plunged 17.3 per cent in May to US$138 million — the steepest drop among major seafood categories according to VASEP.

Exporters have temporarily scaled back US-bound shipments, aiming to avoid potential tariff hikes and restructure their market strategies. Companies like Caseamex are increasingly shifting focus to the EU and Asian markets, which are technically demanding but carry lower trade risks.

Tuna exports also fell sharply, down 23.2 per cent in May to US$65 million, amid rising logistics costs and intensified competition from Latin American suppliers.

Market diversification: a proposed strategy amid trade tensions

In response to US trade policy uncertainty, many Vietnamese seafood enterprises have pivoted toward market diversification and value-added processing. Exports to CPTPP markets such as Japan, Canada, and Mexico continued to rise, reaching US$224 million in May (up 7.9 per cent) and over US$1.15 billion in the first five months (up 24.3 per cent).

China and Hong Kong also recorded notable growth, with May exports nearing US$185 million and five-month value exceeding US$900 million — increases of 22.3 per cent and 48.6 per cent, respectively. VASEP said these gains reflect both Vietnam’s efforts to restructure export markets and strong demand for products that meet regional preferences in taste, pricing, and supply chain flexibility.

Many companies are also investing in deeply processed products — such as fish balls, marinated fillets, canned fish, and collagen derived from by-products — to tap into niche markets and meet rising demand for convenient food options, especially in major Asian urban centers.

Outlook and recommendations

VASEP said that between now and July — when the US is expected to finalise its tariff rates on certain Vietnamese goods — exporters will likely remain cautious in their US strategies. Businesses must therefore carefully time shipments to avoid tax exposure while retaining key customers.

If the 10 per cent tariff remains in place, exports may hold steady. However, if the 46 per cent rate is enacted, a sharp decline in US-bound exports is likely, forcing a more aggressive restructuring of market priorities, according to VASEP.

The association recommends that in the long term, the industry must fully leverage free trade agreements such as CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA to diversify its export portfolio. Key structural improvements — including logistics cost reduction, infrastructure upgrades, and enhanced compliance with international standards — will also be crucial.

Government support in the form of credit policies, sustainable farming programs, and investment in processing capacity will help improve overall competitiveness and long-term growth, VASEP concluded.