Norway exported seafood worth NOK14.8 billion (US$1.53 billion) in January 2026. This is a decrease of NOK416 million (US$42.9 million), or three per cent, compared with the same month last year, according to the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC).
"Lower salmon prices, a weakened US dollar, reduced quotas for several wild fish species and tougher competition in important markets mean that Norwegian seafood exports fell in January", said Christian Chramer, NSC CEO.
In January last year, the US was Norway's largest single seafood market. One year later, the export value has decreased by 37 per cent, and the country has been overtaken by Poland, the Netherlands and China in the list of Norway's largest single markets.
"High and unpredictable tariffs and a weaker dollar have created great uncertainty and challenges in the US, which is still our largest fillet market for both salmon and trout," Chramer explained. "The demanding trade situation is something we are seeing the consequences of now."
The NSC said the importance of the US as a fillet market has already had consequences for the Norwegian fillet industry. After an increase in export volume of eight per cent for fillets of salmon and trout last year, exports fell as much as nine per cent in January compared with the same month last year.
"This has consequences for larger parts of the seafood industry," said Chramer. "The uncertainty is wide-ranging, and the global seafood trade is so closely intertwined that this will have an impact across several species and markets."
In January, the European market increased its share of total Norwegian seafood exports from 62 per cent to 66 per cent compared with the same month last year.
"It is especially the growth of Poland that stood out in January," Chramer remarked. "This is traditionally a processing market, but now they also eat more and more salmon themselves."
The Norwegian krone has appreciated substantially against the US dollar and several important Asian currencies in January compared with the same month last year. Chramer said this contributed to dampening the export value measured in NOK.
"A stronger krone makes Norwegian seafood more expensive in the US and Japan, among other countries."
For several of the wild-caught species, the quotas have been further reduced this year. Exports in January were therefore characterised by high prices and a decline in volumes for mackerel, saithe and prawns, among others.
"For mackerel, we have to go all the way back to 1990 to find a lower export volume, and this is now being felt throughout the value chain," said Chramer. "The battle for the raw material has never been harder, which is demanding for the onshore industry.
"The export volume for salmon increased significantly in January, with major changes in the flow of goods to various markets," said Paul T. Aandahl, NSC Seafood Analyst. "We have to go back to 2021 to see similar changes."
Favourable production conditions have resulted in higher volumes, while uncertainty in world trade and a weak dollar have shifted exports from the US to Asia, especially China, and Poland, which is the largest EU market for processed Norwegian salmon.
"The US is still Norway's most important market for fillets, but due to tariffs and a weakened dollar, exports of fresh fillets to the US have decreased by 37 per cent," Aandahl explained.
For frozen fillets, the decline is 22 per cent to the USA, while exports in total have decreased by six per cent.
"Reduced market access is a strong contributing factor to the decline in the share of salmon exported as processed goods from 26 per cent in January last year to 20 per cent this year," said Aandahl.
China was Norway's second largest growth market in January, measured in volume and value. Only Poland was larger.
A total of 10,997 tonnes of salmon products were exported to China, worth NOK1 billion (US$100 million). The volume increased by 86 per cent, while the value increased by 34 per cent.
"The last two weeks have been particularly strong," said Sigmund Bjørgo, NSC's envoy to China. "Prices for Norwegian salmon in January have been significantly lower compared to the same month last year, so we can therefore expect that we have gained market shares."
