Russian fuel oil exports to Asia slowed in early 2026 as rising scrutiny due to tighter Western sanctions hampered trade while Ukrainian drone attacks on refining facilities in Russia reduced output, according to shipping data and industry sources.
The slowdown in Russian exports combined with falling Venezuelan shipments to China after the US capture of Nicolas Maduro could tighten Asia's supply of the high-sulphur fuel oil, used as a refinery feedstock and bunker fuel, and support prices.
Russian fuel oil exports to Asia have totalled about 1.2 million tonnes (about 246,000 barrels per day) so far in January and are on track to slide for a third straight month, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Friday. The slump comes as some cargoes are diverted to storage facilities before re-exporting and compares with 2.5 million tonnes of exports in January 2025.
Output of Russian refined products has fallen since October as several refineries have shut for repairs following Ukrainian drone attacks. Stormy winter weather in December and January has also impacted cargo loadings.
"Buyers are unwilling to take on risks given the strong sanction monitoring and penalties," said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG, following US sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil in October.
A fuel oil trader said it was now more complicated to move cargoes from the sanctioned refiners as there were multiple layers involved, such as ship-to-ship transfers.
Some cargoes are being held at Port Said anchorage in Egypt awaiting buyers, market sources said. The sources declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to media.
About 360,000 tonnes loaded in November and December are shipped to Asia via longer routes around Africa, trade estimates showed. Of these, roughly 300,000 tonnes do not have a final destination.
Indonesia's Karimun oil terminal also resumed imports in December and January, receiving more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian fuel oil, after a near six-month halt, according to Kpler data and market sources.
Operator Oil Terminal Karimun did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The terminal became a key trans-shipment hub for Russian oil products in recent years.
Asia will likely remain the top destination for Russian fuel oil this year unless Western sanctions are lifted, market sources said. Key outlets include Southeast Asia and China, while some cargoes are continuing to flow to the Middle East, the sources said.
Fuel oil exports from Russia to Singapore totalled 491,000 tonnes so far in January, down from December, Kpler data showed.
Other cargoes continued to end up in China ports including those in Shandong, where independent refineries import fuel oil as an alternative feedstock to crude oil.
(Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh and Natalia Chumakova in Moscow; Editing by Florence Tan and Jamie Freed)