US natural gas futures edged up to a fresh one-week high on Monday on a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May than previously expected.
Gas futures were also supported by near-record gas flows to US LNG export plants and a five per cent jump in crude futures on fears the US-Iran ceasefire could collapse after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.8 cents, or 1.4 per cent, to $2.712 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 8 for a second day in a row.
Even though gas futures were on track to rise for a fourth straight day, speculators last week boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX to the highest since November 2024, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 51 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 60 times so far this year.
Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.83 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US lower 48 states held at 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, the same as in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.9 bcfd over the past 14 days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Monday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.
Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast seven per cent above normal levels during the week ended April 17, up from six per cent above normal during the week ended April 10.
Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 5. LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.6 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, editing by Deepa Babington)