Qatar declared force majeure on gas exports on Wednesday amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, with sources saying it may take at least a month to return to normal production volumes.
The move means global gas markets will experience shortages for weeks even in the unlikely scenario the conflict ends today, as Qatar supplies 20 per cent of global liquefied natural gas.
State energy giant Qatar Energy (QE), which stopped producing gas this week, will fully shut down gas liquefaction on Wednesday, two sources familiar with the matter said. They asked not to be named because they are not allowed to speak to the media.
QE won't restart the facility for at least two weeks, according to initial estimates of the situation in the region, the sources said. Once the restart decision is taken, it will take another two weeks to turn gas into a super-chilled fuel and reach full capacity, the sources added. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Qatar accounts for about 20 per cent of global LNG exports, all of which transit the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping has ground to a near-halt amid the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran's retaliation.
Qatar supplies Europe and predominantly Asian markets, with over 80 per cent of its customers in China, Japan, India, South Korea, Pakistan and other countries in the region.
Force majeure is a clause that frees parties from liability if any failure to meet supply obligations is due to events beyond their control.
QE has started contacting some of its clients in Asia and Europe, but has not told them how long the shutdown might last, sources told Reuters.
The production halt has intensified competition between the Atlantic and Pacific basins for LNG cargoes, sending European and Asian gas prices and LNG freight rates to multi-year highs.
"Nothing can replace Qatari LNG. If the shutdown is prolonged, it portends a larger gas market shock than in 2022 when Russian turned off pipeline gas to Europe. Gas prices could retest their record highs set in 2022," said Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Marquee.
The US, the world's largest LNG producer, has little spare capacity to quickly lift LNG output and offset lost supply, according to Reuters calculations and industry analysts, as plants are already running near full capacity, and most cargoes are tied up in long-term contracts.
Shipping curtailment around the Strait of Hormuz has meant export cargoes cannot leave Qatar, and therefore the liquefaction process - which turns gas into a liquid state by cooling it down to approximately 162 degrees Celsius - cannot continue.
While QE has significant storage capacity at the Ras Laffan liquefaction plant - roughly 1,880,000 cubic metres - that buffer is limited in the context of continuous production at this scale.
At full rate, it would take four days to fill up the tanks, said Mehdy Touil, lead LNG specialist and shareholder at Calypso Commodities, a tech company developing AI solutions for LNG.
The shutdown process is carried out gradually by first reducing production to minimum levels, lowering, stopping feed-gas flows, and finally easing pressure back to upstream facilities to protect equipment, he said.
To restart, the cooldown is the most critical step. It is intentionally slow to avoid thermal shock. Trains cannot all restart simultaneously; they must be sequenced, Touil added.
(Reporting by Marwa Rashad in London; Additional reporting by Andrew Mills in Doha, Marek Strzelecki in Warsaw, Chen Aizhu and Emily Chow in Singapore, Shadia Nasrallah in London. Editing by Mark Potter and)