US LNG exporters have so far offset the drop in shipments from Qatar following Iranian attacks on its facilities and the closure of key Middle East shipping lanes, ensuring that total supplies remain at record highs despite the war.
The on-again, off-again peace talks with Iran mean that the repair of damaged Qatari liquefied natural gas export sites remains a distant prospect, and could result in a years-long dent to supplies from the world's third-largest producer.
The attacks wiped out 17 per cent of Qatar's LNG export capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy's CEO said last month.
So far, US exporters have plugged the supply gap by cranking liquefaction capacity to the maximum and tightening vessel loading schedules to squeeze out additional volumes.
But US export plants will need to curtail output at some point for maintenance, and also have to contend with weather threats at loading sites once hurricane season gets underway in early summer.
That means a fallback in US LNG export volumes will emerge at some point, and could trigger a more severe tightening in global LNG markets than seen so far.
US exporters are on track to load a record 32.15 million tonnes of LNG during the first four months of 2026, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler.
That marks a 28 per cent increase from the same period in 2025 and is the largest year-over-year tonnage increase for those months since 2020.
What's more, the roughly seven million tonnes of extra LNG shipped out by the US so far this year exceeds the 6.93 million-tonne drop in shipments loaded by Qatar over the same period.
As a result, total global seaborne LNG export volumes will hit a fresh high of just over 149 million tonnes for the January to April window, marking a six per cent year-over-year rise, with the US accounting for a record 18 per cent of those volumes.
Key to the US export surge has been record-breaking throughput by the country's main LNG export facilities.
The Sabine Pass terminal owned by Cheniere Energy in Louisiana remains the primary export hub for US LNG and loaded around 25 per cent of all US LNG exports during the first quarter of the year, data from LSEG shows.
However, it is the Plaquemines LNG terminal, owned by Venture Global, that has played the biggest role in lifting US volumes this year by posting a 240 per cent year-over-year jump in export volumes.
The facility loaded nearly 6.5 million tonnes of LNG during the first quarter, which is up from less than two million tonnes during the same period in 2025.
That upswing of around 4.5 million tonnes helped propel it to the second-largest US export facility, and helped lift total quarterly US shipments above 31 million tonnes for the first time.
The timing of the war and subsequent impact on Qatar LNG flows has worked in favour of US exporters, as panicked buyers had little choice but to replace lost volumes at short notice in order to cover near-term gas needs.
However, now that the initial shock of the Qatar export cuts has been digested, potential LNG buyers can afford to take some time to plan their next steps.
What's more, gas consumption in the top markets for LNG - particularly Europe - tends to drop to annual lows over the coming months as mild temperatures reduce the need for heating or cooling.
As European nations have been the top importers of US LNG - accounting for around 72 per cent of US exports so far in 2026 - the imminent decline in gas consumption by utilities in the region could knock US LNG export orders lower.
That said, European gas inventories are currently only around 30 per cent full following steep drawdowns this past winter, and so will need to be replenished ahead of next winter.
Steady LNG orders from natural gas tank farm operators can therefore be expected over the coming months, which should prop up LNG export volumes in the US and elsewhere, even if the urgency of import orders slows from recent peaks.
That potential slowdown in import orders in Europe could actually be welcomed by US LNG exporters, who have been running flat out since the start of the year to capitalise on the opportunities presented by Qatar's forced export cuts.
Slower export orders allow for maintenance work at liquefaction facilities and export terminals, and create room to manage likely weather delays from the storms and hurricanes that tend to emerge during the US summer.
Those export cuts, however, will reduce overall supplies for the broader LNG market, and could result in pockets of potential tightness that other exporters outside the US may have to plug.
(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Marguerita Choy)