American Energy Crowley
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OPINION | Rising LNG exports fuel US cost-of-living concerns

Reuters

US exporters of LNG consumed more natural gas than both households and commercial businesses last year. This development tightened US gas supplies and put the LNG export boom squarely in the frame of discussions surrounding rising US energy costs.

Liquefied natural gas exporters gobbled up a record 5,000 billion cubic feet (141.6 billion cubic metres) of natural gas during January to November of 2025. This information comes from the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

That total sharply exceeds the roughly 4,000 BCF of gas consumed by residences and the 3,000 BCF consumed by commercial sites during that period. This means LNG exporters are now the third-largest US gas consumer behind industry and power firms.

Rio Grande LNG facility

The US LNG export tally was 25 per cent higher than in the same period of 2024. This was accompanied by a 61 per cent rise in the benchmark US natural gas price - the Henry Hub spot price - last year.

As natural gas power plants account for around 40 per cent of US electricity supplies, this is the most of any power source. That run-up in natural gas costs in turn fed into electricity bills for consumers, which hit all-time highs last year.

With US households already grappling with record costs for insurance, housing, food and medical care, pushback against further increases in power bills is likely. This will be a major issue among voters in the run up to this year's midterm elections.

That in turn means that LNG exporters who compete with households and power firms for gas could come under fire. This is occurring even as additional LNG export capacity is due to come online and lift potential US LNG export volumes even higher.

Steep gains

The total amount of gas procured by US LNG exporters during the first 11 months of 2025 marked a 209 per cent increase. This is compared with the same months in 2019.

In contrast, total gas consumption by residences, commercial sites, industry and power firms increased by an average of three per cent over that same span. These commercial sites include restaurants, hospitals and retail stores.

That means that LNG exporters have been by far the fastest growing source of US gas demand within the past decade. This has resulted in dramatic shifts in domestic gas market dynamics, which are characterised by tighter gas supplies for other consumers and greater volatility in natural gas prices.

On the price front, every major consumer group faced steeply higher gas costs in 2025 compared to 2019. Residences and commercial sites registered roughly 50 per cent increases while industry and power firms grappled with a roughly 30 per cent climb.

In response to such a steep climb in gas costs, several major end users have attempted to replace gas with alternative power sources. In the case of households and businesses, this often meant electrification of heating and power systems.

For power firms, higher output from renewable energy sources has been the main means of reducing gas reliance. However, utilities also sharply raised output from cheaper coal-fired power plants in 2025 as gas costs jumped.

Sabine Pass LNG export terminal

LNG exporter impact

LNG exporters can more easily absorb higher domestic gas costs than rival consumers. This is because the sale price of LNG in foreign markets remains multiple times the cost of local gas.

Indeed, the average US LNG export sale price in 2025 was roughly $7.87 per thousand cubic feet (MCF). This compared to an average of $3.66 per MCF for benchmark Henry Hub prices, EIA data shows.

That means that LNG exporters could easily add a $2 per MCF liquefaction fee as well as another $1 per MCF in shipping fees. They could still make a profit when selling the LNG overseas.

With several LNG cargoes sold at even higher prices on the spot market, many LNG exporters recorded even heftier margins. This has spurred them to expand their export capacity as quickly as possible.

Total North American LNG export capacity could more than double from 11.4 BCF in 2024 to 24.3 BCF by the end of 2027. This is according to the EIA's latest short term energy outlook.

Price response

If it materialises as planned, such a steep climb in potential export capacity will trigger a fresh surge in LNG export volumes. This will further tighten gas supplies for other domestic consumers.

That in turn could result in even higher natural gas costs for all other gas buyers. This includes households for heating and power firms for generating electricity.

Residences already face the highest gas costs of all consumers, with prices averaging around $19 per MCF in 2025. This is according to data provided by the EIA.

But commercial and industrial users also pay far more than power firms for gas. The commercial price averaged around $11.44/MCF last year and the industrial price averaged around $5.05/MCF.

Even power firms faced a steep climb in average gas costs last year, to around $3.95/MCF. These firms have access to wholesale pools of gas that other consumers do not.

That indicates that all major gas consumers are being squeezed by the ongoing boom in LNG export demand. They could push back against any factors that threaten to further elevate the cost of such a critical resource.

That in turn suggests that LNG exporters could come under intense scrutiny in 2026. They may face pressure to curb their expansion plans even if doing so slows the pace of LNG sales and undermines the vision for US energy export dominance.

(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Michael Perry)