China’s natural gas consumption will likely expand five per cent next year from this year, and consumption by the industrial and city-gas sectors is set to grow in coming years, showed forecasts from the research arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
The five per cent growth forecast marks a rebound from this year when China’s apparent gas consumption dipped 0.3 per cent year-on-year during the first 10 months. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell 16 per cent during the same period, according to official data.
The industrial sector will be the largest contributor to natural gas demand growth in the next five years and there is significant space for city-gas demand growth in the next 10 years as urbanisation continues, CNPC’s research arm told the International Energy Executive Forum 2025 on Friday.
China’s industrial gas demand will rebound next year after a short-term decline driven by economic pressures and foreign trade barriers, Duan Zhaofang, head of natural gas research at CNPC Economics Technology Research Institute, told the forum.
CNPC foresees residential gas growth continuing to grow until China’s urbanisation rate reaches around 75 per cent versus the current 65 per cent, before levelling off. Natural gas consumption is becoming more sensitive to international prices, Duan added, and China’s future LNG import levels will be determined by spot prices levels.
High spot prices, which had risen 17 per cent during the first nine months of this year, curbed China’s LNG imports, Duan said.
In the electricity sector, China’s new gas power generating capacity is set to reach a record high of over 20 gigawatts in 2025, but utilisation rates will determine how much that contributes to demand, Duan said.
“The installed capacity is very high, but as for the power generated, it may not be as much as expected,” said Lu Xiao, lead China gas researcher at SP Global Energy. Price factors will influence to what extent local governments will implement coal-to-gas switching policies, Lu said.
Gas now only makes up 3.2 per cent in electricity output, well below the global average of 22 per cent, Duan said.
The transport sector has generated rapid growth in gas use in recent years, thanks to the lower cost of gas versus diesel fuel. China’s LNG consumption in vehicles grew 22 per cent year-on-year in January to September to 20.27 million tonnes on the back of rising logistics demand, CNPC’s research shows.
LNG in the shipping sector also has "significant potential" with Chinese coastal cities stepping up development of LNG-powered vessels, Duan said. This is despite the fuel facing competition from up-and-coming sectors including methanol, hydrogen and ammonia.
(Reporting by Colleen Howe and Sam Li; Writing by Chen Aizhu in Singapore; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Stephen Coates)