It is November, the leaves cascading from the autumnal trees (at least in the northern hemisphere), when we remember our fallen heroes, and anticipate the onset of winter with all its manifold glooms. We have Black Friday’s dubious bargains to divert us, and chaps (hopefully only chaps) are urged to grow a moustache.
And now well established in the international calendar, it is the month when the annual Great Climate Festival takes place. After devastating large tracts of the Amazonian forests last year, it is the turn of Turkey’s Antalya to host the COP31 gathering, at which it is reported that 100,000 eager climate co-religionists will enjoy a virtuous fortnight in each other’s company.
Rather more accessible than Belem and situated on the delightful southern coast of this beautiful country, it is sure to be a popular destination, with air traffic control working overtime to manage the great fleet of executive jets that are such a notable feature of these splendid conferences of environmental enthusiasts.
Some attendees might even go by train or sea, although hopefully aboard ferries burning biofuel.
Like the World Cup and the Olympics, there remains huge competition to host these affairs, on the premise that they generate wealth.
For the locals, it will be a heaven-sent opportunity to extend the tourist season and keep the sun-loungers on the beaches rather longer than usual, hoping that the weather, sometimes a bit iffy in the Eastern Mediterranean at this time of year, remains benign.
One does not want to be cynical, but perhaps the most charitable way of regarding these huge affairs is to think of them merely as “events” that will bring useful rewards to the local and international tourist industry, with all its associated merchandise and marketing, while the purpose is really only appreciated by those attending, and enjoying the hospitality.
It is why, like the World Cup and the Olympics, there remains huge competition to host these affairs, on the premise that they generate wealth. Saving the planet has become something of an afterthought, and, thus far, has proved somewhat elusive.
Whether there will be any more meaningful benefit from this particular COP remains to be seen. The auguries are not favourable, despite the climatologists being greatly heartened by this year’s hotter-than-usual temperatures, reinforcing the messages of doom being eructed from their modelling and AI driven futurology.
Because, away from the virtuous circle of activism, the world has rather tired of their messages, and tends to focus on more homespun concerns like the cost of living, geopolitical uncertainties, whether they can afford to keep the lights and heating on this winter and petrol (or gasoline, depending on where you live) in the tank of whatever they drive. They have become thoroughly fed up with being preached at by those who seem to fail to grasp any of their concerns.
The message “Let’ stop oil!” may ring out from activists trying to influence events, but if they care to look around the real world, there is precious little sign that their shrieks are having the slightest difference. All around the globe, the search for oil and gas in exploitable quantities continues, day and night.
The long-term aim might be greener fuels and electrification, but everyone except a few ostrich-minded individuals is aware that oil and gas will be with us for aeons, and transition is slow and expensive.
There are few signs that these ships are going to be made redundant in their lifetimes by some brave new clean energy provision.
Meanwhile, just look at where the drilling is taking place, with the industry, which is trying to do things more sustainably, giving the real world what it wants. If the distinguished delegates looked at the horizon from the Antalya beaches, they might even glimpse a smart Turkish drillship. Who is phasing out oil and gas? Just read the runes, or the headlines, at least, about the drilling activity that is taking place, the orderbook for tankers and gas carriers.
Earlier this week, we learned that a major Chinese operator was to order another 20 VLCCs to supplement its substantial fleet. Large tankers, LNG carriers, and other energy ships are seeing massive demand. Today, we learned that the seaborne coal trade was on the rise. There may be some over-optimism in the ordering of this most cyclical of industries, but there are few signs that these ships are going to be made redundant in their lifetimes by some brave new clean energy provision.
This is the reality the climate alarmists need to grasp. Perhaps, if they recognised this, toned down their rhetoric and took a few years out until COP32, the real world might be more inclined to listen.