The latest global freight data collected by the International Transport Forum at the OECD, through September 2011, has raised concerns over macroeconomic stagnation and near-term decline.
The overall picture for global freight is one of stagnation. Total external trade (in tonnes) by sea has stagnated below pre-crisis levels both in the United States (down five percent) and the EU (down four percent), according to preliminary estimates of tonnes of goods carried until September. The decline in air cargo continues and volumes are now only four percent above pre-crisis levels in the EU area and one percent in the US. Exports by air from Europe have fallen and remained at their pre-crisis level since June.
Dependency on Asia-led growth increases. Exports to Asia, and more specifically China, by sea continued to increase in the EU and the USA. The latest monthly data (from September) show that exports by sea from the US and the EU to Asia are now 17 percent and 28 percent above their pre-crisis levels respectively. However, EU and US trade by air with Asia and China declined as growth rates for exports slowed and imports fell. Imports from Asia by air have been falling since April 2011 both in the EU and USA.
Advanced economies' demand remains weak. Imports by sea to USA and EU have remained below their pre-crisis levels. The latest data on imports by air indicate further weakening of demand. Only German imports seem to have resisted otherwise downward trends.