Russian grain exporters are rerouting shipments to the Baltic Sea, including ports in the Baltic states, after Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov forced them to seek alternative routes, traders and analysts told Reuters on Monday.
Russia and Ukraine have been pounding each other's export terminals and grain-carrying vessels in the Black Sea, creating the biggest disruption to Black Sea trade since the conflict in Ukraine began more than four years ago.
Russia exported 46.3 million tonnes of grain via ports in the Azov and the Black Sea in the last exporting season - July 2025 to June 2026 - accounting for 90 per cent of total Russian seaborne grain exports, industry data shows. Russian Baltic ports shipped only about one million tonnes.
According to an industry source, who asked for anonymity, requests for grain shipments by rail to Russia's Baltic ports for this season hit five million tonnes by August 18 - mainly for delivery in August and September - compared to six million tonnes for the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse.
Russian exporters are also increasingly looking to ports in the Baltic states, mainly in Latvia, an EU and NATO member, analysts and traders said, with shipments expected to spike next month.
Despite strained relations between Russia and its Baltic neighbours, Russian grain shipments through the Baltic countries have continued, although they fell to about one million tonnes in the last season from 2.5 million tonnes two years ago, according to analysts.
"The Baltic region, the northwest, is the main resource now," said Andrey Sizov, head of Sovecon consultancy.
"In September, I think, we will see a sharp increase in shipments through the Baltic states and through Russian Baltic ports."
Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, a lobby group for farmers, estimated that Russian exports through the Baltic states could reach between five and six million tonnes this season or even 10 million tonnes if Estonian ports also become available.
Sizov at Sovecon estimates potential exports through Baltic state ports at between 200,000 and 400,000 tonnes per month, or double his estimate for the Russian Baltic terminals.
Combined grain-handling capacity across the three Baltic states exceeds 18 million tonnes annually, but these facilities also handle grain from other origins in Europe.
The Baltic states were once key export gateways for Russian oil and fertilisers but, as relations deteriorated Russia sought to develop its own shipping infrastructure.
When Russia became a major player in the global agriculture trade and the world's largest wheat exporter, it built grain terminals at Vysotsk and Ust-Luga ports. Grain can also be shipped via the ports of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
Russian ports in the Baltic Sea have a total estimated capacity of up to seven million tonnes of grain a year.
Despite their expansion, capacity is not enough to fully replace the Azov and Black Sea ports.
Zlochevsky at the Russian Grain Union estimates that, at best, all other Russian ports combined as well as land transport could handle only about half of shipments that would normally go through Azov and Black Sea ports.
(Reporting by Olga Popova and Gleb Stolyarov; Editing by Gleb Bryanski and Susan Fenton)