Australia and Argentina exported around 620,000 tonnes of wheat to China in December, shipping data showed. Analysts and traders expect shipments to continue as Chinese buyers take advantage of low global prices.
The December shipments to China were the biggest from Australia since April 2024 and the most from Argentina since 1997, customs data from the countries showed. The number of cargoes surprised some traders.
It suggests that China - the biggest importer of crops - is increasing its appetite for wheat. This follows two large domestic harvests in 2024 and 2025 which had previously reduced its need for imports.
The December shipments were not big enough to lift wheat prices. However, analysts said sustained large-scale Chinese buying in the months ahead could curb global oversupply and support the market.
"We'd heard they'd done a bit," said a trader in Australia of the Australian shipments. "This amount is a complete sideswipe."
At least eight ships carrying a combined 460,000 tonnes of wheat sailed from Australia for China in December. This is according to shipping information from grain traders and ports compiled by Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.
At least three vessels, with around 160,000 tonnes of wheat, left Argentina for China in December, according to port data and the Rosario grains exchange (BCR). Shipping data does not necessarily show all cargoes so the real amount of exports could be slightly higher.
"We're definitely seeing China buy," said a trader in Australia. "Argie and Aussie will be the demand points based on pricing."
Australia and Argentina are wrapping up large harvests. Wheat in Australia is now cheaper than barley, which is in high demand in China as animal feed.
Argentina's wheat is even cheaper, three traders said. "The potential is there," said Lorena D'Angelo, an independent market analyst in Rosario.
"If prices stay at these levels, Argentina is going to be able to keep on closing deals in China." That said, traders said China was not racing to buy.
Argentine and Australian shipping data list only one vessel that has loaded wheat for China in January, sailing from Argentina. This may mean a slower pace of exports this month.
However, several ships in each country are scheduled to carry wheat with no destination yet identified. In the four years to June 2024, China imported on average nearly one million tonnes of wheat a month.
This dwarfed other importers, according to Chinese customs figures. But shipments since then have slowed to around 300,000 tonnes a month, mainly milling wheat from Canada.
Between December 2024 and February last year, Australia sent 240,000 tonnes to China and Argentina shipped none. China needs imports in part because its record-large corn crop has high toxicity levels.
It must be mixed with clean grain before it can be fed to animals, said one trader in Australia. Australia and Argentina should ship one to two million tonnes to China during December and January.
They could send as much as five to six million tonnes by mid-year, he said.
(Reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Maximilian Heath in Buenos Aires; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; Editing by Kate Mayberry)