"I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me," wrote Abraham Lincoln. "Events, dear boy!" was the answer attributed to British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan when asked by a questing journalist what issues were giving him the most sleepless nights. It is also said that whether you are talking about somebody who commands a ship, a company or a country, the effective response to unexpected or untoward events marks out the true leader from the common man or woman.
During recent months and indeed during the febrile times since the financial world was convulsed in late 2008, people running shipping companies have had sufficient events to deal with to last most people a lifetime. An industry in which time is measured in the operating lifetime of ships and great emphasis is given to stability has had its work cut out to respond effectively and correctly to the convulsions of the financial world.
And not only the world of finance – in an industry which is seen as an exemplar of derived demand, with limited ability to control its own destiny in this respect, political upheavals have also come thick and fast. Technical and operational developments have been similarly affected by the regulatory consequences of environmentalism.
People operating ships in international trades have had more than enough events to cope with. A fast-changing world where events materialise often without any warning is not the easiest background in which ships must be operated profitably and efficiently.
Without a doubt, an ability to anticipate events even if the detail may remain in doubt has marked out the real industry leaders. Some suggest that it is all a matter of sensitivity to what is going on in the world. Particularly acute shipping people train their own sensors to detect what is going on in the political, technical and commercial world simultaneously, being among the best informed industry leaders around. Others merely watch them and try and follow their decision-making process as it manifests itself in their commercial practices – when they buy or sell ships and anticipate the vicissitudes of the freight cycles. But the cleverest will be considering the indicators that give the first signs of an emerging trend.
A study of history, alongside the marks of commercial activity such as the freight market or the activity in the sale and purchase market, shows the mark of "events". Canals open and close. The political map changes as a result of wars, revolutions or other man-made convulsions. Booms and slumps take place. Somehow an international marine transport industry adjusts itself, the most successful operators adjusting quicker than others.
In some respects, the shipping industry does have one overwhelming advantage over that of shore-based industry in that it has the flexibility of mobility. Somebody who owns a manufacturing operation ashore is in dire straits if the demand for his goods evaporates. His factories become worthless and his wealth is destroyed. Ships maintain a certain value and except for the most ultra-specialist units, will prove useful to somebody. Their mobility enables them to find utility somewhere else. But it is the expertise of those who manage these assets, their responsiveness and anticipatory powers, which show their ability to handle the events that affect all our lives.
BIMCO Watchmaker