An analysis of the US Navy's 2025 Shipbuilding Plan shows that the service's total shipbuilding costs would average about US$40 billion per year (in 2024 dollars) through 2054 as a fleet of 390 battle force ships is built, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said earlier this week.
Each year, as directed by Congress, the US Department of Defense submits a report with the President’s budget describing the navy’s plan for its future fleet for the next 30 years. In this report, the CBO analyses the navy’s 2025 plan and estimates its costs.
The CBO said that overall, the navy wants to build a larger fleet whose firepower is distributed among more ships than it is today.
Cost. The navy’s 2025 plan would cost 46 per cent more annually in real terms (i.e., adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) than the average amount appropriated over the past five years. The CBO estimates that total shipbuilding costs would average US$40 billion (in 2024 dollars) over the next 30 years, which is about 17 per cent more than the navy estimates. The CBO’s estimates for the 2025 plan range from eight per cent to 16 per cent higher in real terms than its estimates for the three alternatives in the navy’s 2024 plan. Including the costs of operating and maintaining those ships, buying new aircraft and weapons, and funding the US Marine Corps, the navy’s total budget would need to increase from US$255 billion today to US$340 billion (in 2024 dollars) in 2054 to implement the 2025 plan.
Fleet size. The number of battle force ships would increase from 295 today to 390 in 2054. Before increasing, however, the fleet would become smaller in the near term, falling to 283 ships in 2027.
Purchasing plan. The navy would purchase a total of 364 new combat ships and combat logistics and support ships. Overall, under the 2025 plan, the navy would buy more current generation ships and more smaller ships than it would have purchased under any of the 2024 plan’s three alternatives.
Fleet capabilities. The fleet’s firepower would be reduced over the next decade, but thereafter, as the fleet grew, its firepower would increase and become distributed among more ships.
Industrial base. Over the next 30 years, the nation’s shipyards would need to produce substantially more naval tonnage than they have produced over the past 10 years. The rate of production of nuclear-powered submarines, in particular, would need to increase significantly.