Greenland’s economy is forecast to expand by 1.3 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027 as higher cod catches and prices support activity.
The Greenland Economic Council’s latest assessment, reported on September 12, follows three consecutive years in which economic growth remained below one per cent. Pressure on the shrimp fishery contributed to the weak performance during that period.
Greenland’s cod catch in 2025 was 65 per cent higher than in 2022. Cod also secured higher market prices, increasing the economic benefit from the larger catch, although the assessment did not provide catch volumes or average prices.
The council identified cod fishing as an important contributor to the stronger near-term outlook. Higher landings can support fishing activity and throughput at processing plants, but the forecast did not quantify cod’s share of projected economic growth.
Catches of shrimp and halibut have declined, offsetting part of the benefit from the stronger cod fishery.
Shrimp and halibut join cod as Greenland’s dominant seafood export fisheries. Together, they account for about 90 per cent of the country’s fish and seafood exports, leaving export earnings exposed to changes in catches and market prices.
The assessment did not give the scale or timing of the shrimp and halibut declines. It also did not identify whether the rise in cod catches reflected quota changes, stock availability or greater fishing effort.
Inflation is forecast to ease from 3.7 per cent in 2025 to about three per cent in both 2026 and 2027. Unemployment is also expected to decline, although the council did not provide a rate or timeframe for that reduction.
The short-term forecast comes as Greenland faces longer-term pressure from its declining and ageing population. The council expects this demographic trend to reduce the labour supply and increase demands on public finances.
By the late 2030s, the annual public-sector deficit could reach 400–500 million kroner. The assessment did not specify whether the projection was expressed in nominal or real terms.