According to data from Vietnam Customs, in March 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached US$182 million, up 21 per cent from the previous month and 16 per cent year-on-year.
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), robust demand from Vietnam’s two key export destinations, the United States and China, continues to play a pivotal role in driving the outbound flow of pangasius products beyond national borders.
VASEP pointed out that the temporary 90-day suspension of the proposed 46 per cent countervailing tariff on Vietnamese goods has provided exporters with a crucial window to ship their products to the US and explore alternative market opportunities.
Currently, the export price of pangasius to the U.S. is approximately US$3.40/kg. If the 46 per cent tariff is implemented, the price could rise to around US$5.10/kg—rendering Vietnamese pangasius significantly less competitive against other whitefish products.
VASEP said this scenario could result in substantial losses for exporters, where increasing export volume paradoxically exacerbates financial hardship. As a result, enterprises may be compelled to reassess their market strategies, potentially reducing their exposure to the US and shifting focus to other regions.
In terms of volume, Vietnam’s pangasius exports across all markets experienced a sharp increase in March 2025, rising from over 55,000 tonnes to nearly 79,000 tonnes for an impressive 23 per cent year-on-year growth.
Most major export markets recorded notable month-on-month increases in March 2025. For example, China and Hong Kong saw 61 per cent increases while it was 73 per cent for the European Union, 44 per cent for Brazil, and 120 per cent to the UK.
VASEP said this surge in export volume was partly due to the absence of disruptions caused by Vietnam’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, which had affected shipment volumes in the first two months of the year. Additionally, rising demand from China towards the end of March was supported by a decline in raw material prices.
Looking ahead to April 2025, raw pangasius demand may soften among major US-bound exporters due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Nevertheless, VASEP remarked that the China and Hong Kong market is showing signs of improved supply conditions, suggesting that overall demand for raw pangasius may remain resilient.
Thanks to a strong rebound, China and Hong Kong regained their position as Vietnam’s largest pangasius export destination in March 2025, importing over 21,000 tonnes. This followed a notable drop in February, which marked the lowest monthly import volume in the past year.
However, the average export price to China decreased by 4.2 per cent to US$2.04/kg after six consecutive months of gains. Vietnam’s pangasius exports to China reached US$38 million in March 2025, up six per cent from the same period last year.
By the end of Q1 2025, China and the United States remained Vietnam’s top two pangasius export markets, with frozen fillets continuing to dominate the product mix.
VASEP said that, beyond the temporary tariff suspension and trade policy dynamics, consumer demand in both markets remains a decisive factor in shaping retail market trends.
Consumers in both countries are familiar with the taste and quality of Vietnamese whitefish. VASEP believes that, if offered competitive pricing through tariff reductions or trade agreement benefits, their purchasing decisions are likely to shift favorably, thereby boosting both import volume and export value from Vietnam.